Commodity market report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook May 2017 - increased protectionism dampens demand

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Report summary

Market has taken a bearish turn since the start of May. Declining Chinese domestic coal prices dragged down Pacific prices. Increased protectionism in China and India and the election of pro-renewables president in South Korea, the fourth largest importer of thermal coal, add on to the uncertainties. We do not see a lot of upside in prices for remainder of 2017. Newcastle price is expected to decline to US$74/t in Q3 before falling further to US$73/t in Q4 this year. ARA will average US$70/t in H2.

What's included

This report contains

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • China: production ramp up and policy hinder import
    • Indonesia: well-placed to meet Pacific demand but faces biggest downside risk
    • Russia: rail upgrade limits exports upside in the near term

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

Images

  • Prices: Image 1
  • China domestic coal prices (RMB/t)
  • Key prices - history and forecast (nominal, US$/t)
  • Japan nuclear restarts

Tables

  • Key market data

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