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Global thermal coal short-term outlook May 2018: China intervenes in an attempt to cool prices

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31 May 2018

Global thermal coal short-term outlook May 2018: China intervenes in an attempt to cool prices

Report summary

With summer fast approaching in China and India, utilities have been in preparation mode and restocking activity has been in full effect. Also, for China, the threat of further import restrictions at the ports is causing heightened interest in building up supplies. Prices have strengthened over the last month as a result of the restocking activity, weak nuclear generation in Japan and South Korea, and supply issues at some exporting countries. The Newcastle 6,000 kcal NAR price gained 12% over the last month.

Table of contents

    • Key market prices
  • Prices
    • China: hot weather and weak hydro generation sustain strong coal demand
    • South Korea: new sulphur cap could push high energy coal prices up
    • India: strong imports as domestic production continues to struggle
    • Poland: largest utility moves towards wind and gas
    • Europe: strong hydro and renewables challenge coal generation
    • China: NDRC takes steps to ease domestic supply
    • Colombia: heavy rain causes production decline
    • South Africa: domestic supply issues continue
    • Indonesia: fishermen disrupted operations at the port of Samarinda
    • Indonesia: shipping rule implementation postponed to 2020
    • US exports continue to grow despite railroads bottlenecks
    • US rail providers working on bottlenecks

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

  • Key market data
  • ARA and Richards Bay 6,000 kcal price differentials to Newcastle 6,000 kcal
  • Key prices – history and forecast (nominal, US$/t)
  • Executive summary: Table 2
  • Key thermal coal suppliers to South Korea (since 2010)
  • Sulphur content of global thermal exports 2018
  • Coal demand, dispatch, and production
  • Closing coal stocks at utilities
  • Colombian exports (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    wm coal monthly thermal trade May 2018.xls

    XLS 2.63 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook May 2018: China intervenes in an attempt to cool prices

    PDF 343.68 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook May 2018: China intervenes in an attempt to cool prices

    ZIP 2.22 MB

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