Commodity Market Report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2017 - can supply keep up this winter?

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Report summary

Supply is a concern this winter. In the current finely-balanced market, any disruption to supply will result in significant uptick in prices. Weather remains a major risk. The rainy season has started in key exporting countries such as Australia and Indonesia. November also marked the onset of peak cyclone season in Australia. Should we see a repeat of what had happened during Cyclone Debbie earlier this year, prices will spike and demand destruction is likely as no additional prompt supply is available.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    wm coal monthly thermal trade november 2017.xls

    XLS 2.34 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2017 - can supply keep up this winter?

    PDF 351.33 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2017 - can supply keep up this winter?

    ZIP 2.10 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • China: import restrictions and increased supply taper winter import demand
    • India: low coal stocks and petcoke ban boost imports
    • Japan: Kobe scandal delays nuclear restart
    • South Korea: will the strong import momentum be maintained?
    • Taiwan: will coal demand be under pressure post 2020?
    • Atlantic market: nuclear and hydropower driving power prices up this winter
    • Supply roundup: strikes and rain continue to limit supply ramp-up in near term

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Key market data
  • Japan expected nuclear restarts (2017-2019)
  • South Korea nuclear additions (2017-2019)

Images

  • Key prices - history and forecast (nominal, US$/t)
  • Price arbitrage between domestic and imported coal (US$/t)
  • India coal generation (TWh)
  • India coal stocks (days burn)

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