Supply is a concern this winter. In the current finely-balanced market, any disruption to supply will result in significant uptick in prices. Weather remains a major risk. The rainy season has started in key exporting countries such as Australia and Indonesia. November also marked the onset of peak cyclone season in Australia. Should we see a repeat of what had happened during Cyclone Debbie earlier this year, prices will spike and demand destruction is likely as no additional prompt supply is available.