Commodity Market Report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2017 - can supply keep up this winter?

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01 December 2017

Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2017 - can supply keep up this winter?

Report summary

Supply is a concern this winter. In the current finely-balanced market, any disruption to supply will result in significant uptick in prices. Weather remains a major risk. The rainy season has started in key exporting countries such as Australia and Indonesia. November also marked the onset of peak cyclone season in Australia. Should we see a repeat of what had happened during Cyclone Debbie earlier this year, prices will spike and demand destruction is likely as no additional prompt supply is available.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • China: import restrictions and increased supply taper winter import demand
    • India: low coal stocks and petcoke ban boost imports
    • Japan: Kobe scandal delays nuclear restart
    • South Korea: will the strong import momentum be maintained?
    • Taiwan: will coal demand be under pressure post 2020?
    • Atlantic market: nuclear and hydropower driving power prices up this winter
    • Supply roundup: strikes and rain continue to limit supply ramp-up in near term

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Key market data
  • Key prices - history and forecast (nominal, US$/t)
  • Price arbitrage between domestic and imported coal (US$/t)
  • India coal generation (TWh)
  • India coal stocks (days burn)
  • Japan expected nuclear restarts (2017-2019)
  • South Korea nuclear additions (2017-2019)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    wm coal monthly thermal trade november 2017.xls

    XLS 2.34 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2017 - can supply keep up this winter?

    PDF 351.33 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2017 - can supply keep up this winter?

    ZIP 2.10 MB

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