Commodity market report
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9 Pages

Global thermal coal short-term outlook October 2015

Global thermal coal short-term outlook October 2015

Report summary

Prices of key bituminous coals swirled around the low US$50/t level during October with limited physical trade as the industry convened in Barcelona for a key conference. As it ended, higher activity returned to the physical curve with some upward trending prices for ARA and FOB Richards Bay; FOB Newcastle, though, fell from the time in which October contracts with Tohoku were concluded. Have fundamentals changed dramatically month-on month? 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal short-term outlook October 2015 PDF - 326.92 KB 9 Pages, 1 Tables, 3 Figures
  • WM coal monthly thermal trade october.xls XLS - 541.00 KB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Prompt prices range-bound but steep backwardation into 2016
      • Key prices - history and forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Demand
    • Coaltrans Barcelona ends: mood remains flat, key questions on participants' minds
    • China: what to expect from the 13th five year plan?
      • Arbitrage window only open for bituminous coals
    • Japan's nuclear restarts: expecting 1.8 GW for 2015
    • South Korea: canny procurement supports diversification goals
    • India: Coal India outperforming, but can coal reach its market?
  • Supply
    • Increasing rail tariffs causing cutbacks in Russian western coal exports
    • Indonesian production cuts needed to adjust for the fall in demand
    • End of strike in South Africa: minimal tonnage affected
    • Colombia's night-time rail ban is a step closer to being lifted
    • Polish utilities investing in coal assets

In this report there are 4 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data table
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
  • Demand
    • Price arbitrage: domestic versus import coals into China (US$/t)
  • Supply
    • Colombia coal production by department (Mt)
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