Commodity market report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook October 2016

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Report summary

Q4 is expected to be tight. China's struggle to control escalating domestic prices nuclear outages in Japan South Korea and France and the prospect of a colder winter imply seaborne demand will hold up. Supply continues to play catch up. A more active cyclone season in Australia which can potentially disrupt loading of coal further adds onto supply uncertainty and fuel further spikes in prices.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    wm coal monthly thermal trade october 2016.xls

    XLS 1.68 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook October 2016

    PDF 333.89 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook October 2016

    ZIP 1.65 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • FOB Newcastle: US$136/t in sight, or prime for a correction?
    • Pacific: winter restocking and domestic supply shortages support high Chinese imports
    • Pacific: Nuclear outages in South Korea boost coal demand
    • Atlantic: Nuclear outages in France support demand
    • Can Indonesia, China and US come to the rescue?

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

Images

  • Prices: Image 1
  • Suppliers of thermal coal to South Korea
  • Delivered cost curve: with capacity restrictions
  • China 5,800 kcal/kg coal netback to Australia

Tables

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Nuclear outages

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