Commodity market report
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10 Pages

Global thermal coal short-term outlook October 2016

Global thermal coal short-term outlook October 2016

Report summary

Q4 is expected to be tight. China's struggle to control escalating domestic prices, nuclear outages in Japan, South Korea and France, and the prospect of a colder winter imply seaborne demand will hold up. Supply continues to play catch up. A more active cyclone season in Australia which can potentially disrupt loading of coal further adds onto supply uncertainty and fuel further spikes in prices.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal short-term outlook October 2016 PDF - 333.89 KB 10 Pages, 2 Tables, 4 Figures
  • wm coal monthly thermal trade october 2016.xls XLS - 1.68 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • FOB Newcastle: US$136/t in sight, or prime for a correction?
  • Demand
    • Pacific: winter restocking and domestic supply shortages support high Chinese imports
    • Pacific: Nuclear outages in South Korea boost coal demand
    • Atlantic: Nuclear outages in France support demand
  • Supply
    • Can Indonesia, China and US come to the rescue?

In this report there are 6 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
  • Demand
    • Nuclear outages
    • Suppliers of thermal coal to South Korea
    • Delivered cost curve: with capacity restrictions
  • Supply
    • China 5,800 kcal/kg coal netback to Australia
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