Commodity market report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook September 2016

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Report summary

Years of supply rationalisation and spot prices below the marginal cost of production have left seaborne thermal and metallurgical markets unable to quickly respond to a modest China inspired demand shock. The result has been significant price spikes in these markets.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    wm coal monthly thermal trade September 2016.xls

    XLS 1.62 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook September 2016

    PDF 560.29 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook September 2016

    ZIP 1.79 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:


  • Key market data
  • Premium/discount of ARA to Newcastle (US$/t)
  • Premium/discount Richards Bay to Newcastle (US$/t)
  • Key prices: history and forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Export margin evolution over past four months (US$/t)
  • Marginal cost of production versus spot price (US$/t)
  • Historical Japan and South Korea switching and fuel prices (US$/mmbtu)
  • Monthly coal-fired generation (TWh)
  • China gencos daily burn (Mt)
  • Seaborne Pacific demand for thermal coal by country (Mt)
  • Global dry bulk capesize shipping rates (US$/t)
  • Average weekly FOB Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price (RMB/t) and policy
  • Price tiers for supply increase/decrease

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