Commodity Market Report
Global thermal short-term outlook May 2022
Report summary
Europe’s rush to secure coal inventories ahead of the 10 August deadline of the EU Russian coal import sanctions further strengthened the rally in high CV seaborne thermal coal prices in May. However, prices of low CV coal remained subdued primarily due to the lull in Chinese demand. Coal demand is expected to remain strong in the near term. Fear of disruptions in natural gas supplies from Russia will keep Europe’s reliance on coal robust for the rest of 2022. The anticipated return of normalcy in China coupled with resurgent Indian demand will further strengthen demand. However, recent supply improvements globally will significantly lag behind demand growth, keeping prices high.
Table of contents
- China – seaborne thermal coal imports, although improving, are still curtailed by high seaborne prices
- India – power crisis coupled with domestic supply constraints supports import growth
- Europe – imports to stay strong as the embargo on Russian coal nears
- Indonesia – production and exports ease from record levels in March
- Russia – Europe stocks up on Russian coal before the ban begins
- Colombia – political headwinds for coal production
- South Africa – thermal coal exports drift back to Europe
- High/low scenarios
Tables and charts
This report includes 8 images and tables including:
- Australia thermal coal exports
- Australia thermal coal exports by quality
- Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)
- Indonesian mines 7-day average rainfall (mm/week)
- South Africa coal exports by country
- Average rainfall across South African coal mines
- Key prices - history and forecast (nominal US$/t)
- Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
What's included
This report contains:
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