Commodity Market Report

India coal long-term outlook H1 2015

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Report summary

In November 2014, the Indian government announced a very ambitious target of 1 Btpa raw coal production by 2020 to be achieved by Coal India Limited (CIL). This means CIL will have to add 431 Mt in the next five years compared to 64 Mt added between 2010 and 2015. Key challenges are dislocated markets, inferior coal quality and missing rail links.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    02 cms india price outlook data.xls

    XLS 568.00 KB

  • Document

    03 cms india thermal demand data.xls

    XLS 506.00 KB

  • Document

    04 cms india met demand data.xls

    XLS 305.50 KB

  • Document

    01 cms india executive summary data.xls

    XLS 605.50 KB

  • Document

    05 cms india coal supply data.xls

    XLS 675.50 KB

  • Document

    06 cms india infrastructure data.xls

    XLS 291.50 KB

  • Document

    India coal long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 1.36 MB

  • Document

    India coal long-term outlook H1 2015

    ZIP 2.63 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 151.52 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 63.86 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 152.40 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 293.86 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 134.58 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 799.71 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 102.92 KB

Table of contents

      • One Btpa coal production target by 2020 – a reality check
      • Power sector reforms – right direction, slow pace
      • An evolving merchant power market will help in power tariff and spot coal price discovery mechanism
      • Iron and steel sector reforms – seeking direction
      • Regional demand patterns show growth in coastal locations
      • Thermal coal
      • Metallurgical coal
  • Economic outlook
    • Thermal coal demand
    • Power sector demand
    • Economic growth will drive the demand for electricity
    • Coal will remain the dominant fuel for power generation
    • Domestic coal production will fail to meet total Indian demand
    • Ultra mega power plants (UMPP) soldier on with regulatory help
    • Non-power sector demand
    • The demand for coal in cement production will grow but be tempered by cost control and substitution efforts
    • A growing sponge iron and fertiliser market will require increased amounts of thermal coal
      • Changes from previous update
    • Metallurgical coal demand
    • Uncertainty in the development of coal supply and infrastructure in India
    • Change in the rate of energy demand growth in India
    • India's solar charge
    • Pace and scale of market reforms

Tables and charts

This report includes 54 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Status of currently "active" ultra-mega power projects
  • India demand for cement (Mt)
  • India thermal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • India metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Seaborne thermal coal price forecast (real 2015 US$/t)
  • Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast (real 2015 US$/t)

Images

  • Domestic and seaborne thermal coal price comparison – 6300 kcal GAR (US$/t)
  • Domestic and seaborne thermal coal price comparison – 4200 kcal (US$/t)
  • Raw coal production by mine status (Mt)
  • All India raw coal production by type (Mt) – Indian fiscal year ending 31st March
  • Raw coal production by state and type – fiscal year ending 31st March
  • Raw coal production by mining method (Mt)
  • 2014 thermal coal trade flows (Mt)
  • 2014 metallurgical coal trade flows (Mt)
  • Delivered cost breakdown for a power plant in Rajasthan - June 2015
  • Thermal coal demand by market sector (Mt)
  • GDP and elasticity of generation
  • Generation by fuel type (TWh)
  • Generation share by fuel type
  • Capacity by fuel type (GW)
  • Capacity share by fuel type
  • India seaborne imports by country and rank (Mt)
  • India steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • India metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Raw coal production by mine status and company (Mt)
  • Thermal coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Coal India’s production, despatch and stockpiles (Mt)
  • Coal share in total rail loading (Mt )
  • Dedicated freight corridors
  • Major ports - growth in overseas (coal imports) and coastal (domestic coal) shipments (Mt)
  • Inter-regional power flows summary (GWh)
  • Inter-regional power flows summary (GWh)
  • Raw coal production from operating mines and projects - based on company targets (Mt)
  • Five-year growth required in raw coal production to meet company targets (Mt)
  • Indicative coal production costs range at CIL subsidiaries (US$/t)
  • Peak power demand grid profile (GW)
  • Peak demand (GW) versus reserve margin (%)
  • Short-term electricity transaction volumes in India (TWh)
  • Short-term electricity volumes and price
  • Domestic iron ore production and exports (Mt)
  • Blast furnaces and fuel rates in India
  • Coal-fired generation capacity (GW)
  • Hot metal capacity (Mtpa)
  • Metallurgical coke demand (Mt)
  • Changes from prior outlooks
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Thermal coal supply forecast (Mt)
  • Total metallurgical production by use (Mt) – Indian fiscal year ending 31st March
  • Metallurgical coal production forecast (Mt)
  • Indian ports’ coal handling capacity growth by state to 2030 (Mt)
  • India’s seaports (operating and projects)
  • Inland water transport (operating and projects)

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