Commodity market report
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54 Pages

India coal long-term outlook H1 2015

India coal long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

In November 2014, the Indian government announced a very ambitious target of 1 Btpa raw coal production by 2020 to be achieved by Coal India Limited (CIL). This means CIL will have to add 431 Mt in the next five years compared to 64 Mt added between 2010 and 2015. Key challenges are dislocated markets, inferior coal quality and missing rail links.

What's included?

This report includes 7 file(s)

  • India coal long-term outlook H1 2015 PDF - 1.36 MB 54 Pages, 7 Tables, 47 Figures
  • 02 cms india price outlook data.xls XLS - 568.00 KB
  • 03 cms india thermal demand data.xls XLS - 506.00 KB
  • 04 cms india met demand data.xls XLS - 305.50 KB
  • 01 cms india executive summary data.xls XLS - 605.50 KB
  • 05 cms india coal supply data.xls XLS - 675.50 KB
  • 06 cms india infrastructure data.xls XLS - 291.50 KB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key themes
      • One Btpa coal production target by 2020 – a reality check
      • Power sector reforms – right direction, slow pace
      • An evolving merchant power market will help in power tariff and spot coal price discovery mechanism
      • Iron and steel sector reforms – seeking direction
      • Regional demand patterns show growth in coastal locations
      • Thermal coal
      • Metallurgical coal
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
    • Domestic price setting mechanisms
      • Notified prices
      • E-auction prices
      • Auction of coal linkages/LOAs
    • Delivered thermal coal costs to power plants in India
    • Seaborne coal price outlook
      • Thermal price forecast
      • Metallurgical price forecast
  • Demand
    • Thermal coal demand
    • Power sector demand
    • Economic growth will drive the demand for electricity
    • Coal will remain the dominant fuel for power generation
    • Domestic coal production will fail to meet total Indian demand
    • Ultra mega power plants (UMPP) soldier on with regulatory help
    • Non-power sector demand
    • The demand for coal in cement production will grow but be tempered by cost control and substitution efforts
    • A growing sponge iron and fertiliser market will require increased amounts of thermal coal
    • Trade flow patterns will change to favour increased import of low rank coal
      • Changes from previous update
    • Metallurgical coal demand
  • Supply
    • Timing and successful development of new mines is a risk to Indian production growth
    • Domestic coal washing will grow in importance as domestic quality degrades overtime
      • Thermal coal
      • Metallurgical coal
    • Coal imports will be required for continued growth, despite government resistance
  • Infrastructure
    • Increased supply of railcars provide temporary relief in coal transportation
    • India’s coastline is undergoing a massive port development programme
      • East Coast of India
      • West Coast of India
      • Growth concentrated in four coastal states
      • Inland water transport
      • Power transmission infrastructure
    • Inter-regional power flows by month (GWh).
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Uncertainty in the development of coal supply and infrastructure in India
    • Change in the rate of energy demand growth in India
    • India's solar charge
    • Pace and scale of market reforms

In this report there are 54 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Raw coal production from operating mines and projects - based on company targets (Mt)
    • Five-year growth required in raw coal production to meet company targets (Mt)
    • Indicative coal production costs range at CIL subsidiaries (US$/t)
    • Peak power demand grid profile (GW)
    • Peak demand (GW) versus reserve margin (%)
    • Short-term electricity transaction volumes in India (TWh)
    • Short-term electricity volumes and price
    • Domestic iron ore production and exports (Mt)
    • Blast furnaces and fuel rates in India
    • Executive summary: Table 1
    • Coal-fired generation capacity (GW)
    • Hot metal capacity (Mtpa)
    • Metallurgical coke demand (Mt)
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
    • Domestic and seaborne thermal coal price comparison – 6300 kcal GAR (US$/t)
    • Domestic and seaborne thermal coal price comparison – 4200 kcal (US$/t)
    • Delivered cost breakdown for a power plant in Rajasthan - June 2015
    • Seaborne thermal coal price forecast (real 2015 US$/t)
    • Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast (real 2015 US$/t)
  • Demand
    • Thermal coal demand by market sector (Mt)
    • GDP and elasticity of generation
    • Generation by fuel type (TWh)
    • Generation share by fuel type
    • Capacity by fuel type (GW)
    • Capacity share by fuel type
    • Status of currently "active" ultra-mega power projects
    • India demand for cement (Mt)
    • India seaborne imports by country and rank (Mt)
    • India thermal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Changes from prior outlooks
    • Demand: Image 9
    • India steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • India metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • India metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Supply
    • Raw coal production by mine status (Mt)
    • All India raw coal production by type (Mt) – Indian fiscal year ending 31st March
    • Raw coal production by state and type – fiscal year ending 31st March
    • Raw coal production by mining method (Mt)
    • Raw coal production by mine status and company (Mt)
    • Thermal coal supply forecast (Mt)
    • Total metallurgical production by use (Mt) – Indian fiscal year ending 31st March
    • Metallurgical coal production forecast (Mt)
    • Thermal coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Infrastructure
    • 2014 thermal coal trade flows (Mt)
    • 2014 metallurgical coal trade flows (Mt)
    • Coal India’s production, despatch and stockpiles (Mt)
    • Coal share in total rail loading (Mt )
    • Dedicated freight corridors
    • Major ports - growth in overseas (coal imports) and coastal (domestic coal) shipments (Mt)
    • Indian ports’ coal handling capacity growth by state to 2030 (Mt)
    • India’s seaports (operating and projects)
    • Inland water transport (operating and projects)
    • Inter-regional power flows summary (GWh)
    • Inter-regional power flows summary (GWh)
  • Risks and uncertainties
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