Commodity market report
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50 Pages

India coal markets long-term outlook Q1 2014


India coal markets long-term outlook Q1 2014

Report summary

Our analysis of domestic trade flows and regional coal demand patterns – based on named coal-fired power projects and steel plants – suggest significant growth in coastal locations. We expect thermal and metallurgical coal imports to rise from 130 Mt and 36 Mt, respectively, in 2013 to a level of 200 Mt and 57 Mt by 2020, and 429 Mt and 89 Mt by 2035.

What's included?

This report includes 7 file(s)

  • India coal markets long-term outlook Q1 2014 PDF - 3.93 MB 50 Pages, 8 Tables, 53 Figures
  • 01 CMS India Executive Summary data.xls XLS - 725.00 KB
  • 02 CMS India Price outlook data.xls XLS - 577.50 KB
  • 03 CMS India Thermal demand data.xls XLS - 491.50 KB
  • 04 CMS India Met demand data.xls XLS - 276.50 KB
  • 05 CMS India Coal Supply data.xls XLS - 1.06 MB
  • 06 CMS India Infrastructure data.xls XLS - 241.50 KB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key themes
    • Power sector reforms - right direction, slow pace
      • Weak economic situation hurting power demand growth, long-term potential promising
    • Iron and steel sector reforms – seeking direction
    • Regional demand patterns show growth in coastal locations
      • Thermal coal
      • Metallurgical coal
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic structure
    • Short-term Outlook
  • Prices
    • Notified prices
    • E-auction prices
    • Thermal price forecast
    • Metallurgical price forecast
    • Lignite import ban
    • Indonesia export tax
  • Demand
    • Thermal coal demand
      • Power sector demand
      • Economic growth will drive the demand for electricity
      • Coal will remain the dominant fuel for power generation
      • Domestic coal production will fail to meet total Indian demand
      • Ultra mega power plants (UMPP) soldier on with regulatory help
      • Non-power sector demand
      • The demand for coal in cement production will grow but be tempered by cost control and substitution efforts
      • A growing sponge iron and fertiliser market will require increased amounts of thermal coal
    • Trade flow patterns will change to favour increased import of low rank coal
    • Modest change from previous update
    • Metallurgical coal demand
  • Supply
    • Marketable coal production is forecast to rise 245% by 2035.
  • Infrastructure
    • Increased supply of railcars provide temporary relief in coal transportation
    • India’s coastline is undergoing a massive port development programme
      • East Coast of India
      • West Coast of India
      • Growth concentrated in 4 coastal states
    • Inland water transport
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Uncertainty in the development of supply and infrastructure in India
    • Change in the rate of energy demand growth in India

In this report there are 61 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Tariff curve of select power plants in India
    • Peak power demand grid profile (GW)
    • Peak demand (GW) versus reserve margin (%)
    • Short-term electricity transaction volumes in India (billion kWh)
    • Short-term electricity volumes and price
    • Domestic iron ore production and exports (Mt)
    • Blast furnaces and fuel rates in India
    • Electric-route crude steel making, Mt
    • Executive summary: Table 1
    • Coal-fired generation capacity, GW
    • Hot metal capacity, Mtpa
    • Metallurgical coke demand, Mt
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP by sector (% of GDP)
    • GDP by expenditure (trillion INR, 2004-05 prices)
    • GDP outlook (annual growth)
    • Industrial production outlook (annual growth)
    • Population by age cohort (million)
    • India's GDP growth by component
    • GDP per capita (constant 2005 USD)
  • Prices
    • Domestic and seaborne thermal coal price comparison - 6,300 kcal/kg GAR (US$/t)
    • Domestic and seaborne thermal coal price comparison - 4,200 kcal/kg GAR (US$/t)
    • Domestic coal cost components - Feb 2014 (%)
    • Imported coal cost components - Feb 2014 (%)
    • Seaborne thermal coal price forecast (real 2013 US$/t)
    • Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast (real 2013 US$/t)
    • Trade flow changes, Mt
    • Newcastle price change, FOB US$/t (real 2013)
    • Trade flow change, Mt)
    • Newcastle price change, FOB US$/t (real 2013)
  • Demand
    • 2013 thermal coal demand by market sector (Mt)
    • GDP elasticity of generation
    • Generation by fuel type (TWh)
    • Generation share by fuel type
    • Capacity by fuel type (GW)
    • Capacity share by fuel type
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Demand: Table 2
    • India seaborne imports by country and rank (Mt)
    • Demand: Table 3
    • India supply demand balance (Mt)
    • Map of coal-fired power stations in India
    • Demand: Table 4
    • India steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Demand: Table 5
    • India metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Blast furnace and coke oven plant location map
  • Supply
    • Raw coal production forecast by mine status (Mt)
    • Raw coal production by mine status and company (Mt)
    • 2012 domestic thermal coal ash curve
    • 2030 domestic coal ash curve
    • Thermal coal supply forecast (Mt)
    • Total metallurgical coal production by use (Mt)
    • Metallurgical coal supply forecast (Mt)
  • Infrastructure
    • 2013 domestic trade flows - thermal coal
    • 2013 domestic trade flows - metallurgical coal
    • Coal India’s production, despatch and stockpiles (Mt)
    • Coal share in total rail loading (Mt)
    • Dedicated freight corridors
    • Indian ports’ coal handling capacity growth by state to 2030 (Mt)
    • India's seaports (operating and projects)
    • Inland water transport (operating and projects)
  • Risks and uncertainties
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