Commodity market report

India coal short-term outlook April 2017: falling seaborne prices to support imports

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Report summary

Increasing domestic production, weak demand and high seaborne prices put thermal coal imports under pressure in the near term. India's government also helped to boost domestic demand by ordering state-owned utilities not to use imports.High seaborne prices, due China importing 30 Mt more seaborne thermal coal last year , have impacted the competitiveness of imports. India's imported coal prices have risen between 50-70% in 2016, resulting in a 7 Mt fall in thermal coal imports in 2016. As Coal India continues to improve its supply, outlook for thermal coal imports remains depressed. However, falling seaborne prices in second half of the year will provide downside support. Thermal coal imports will fall to 146 Mt this year and 142 Mt in 2018.

What's included

This report contains

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Domestic spot prices remain under pressure over weak offtake
    • Thermal coal imports under pressure from protectionism
    • Improvement in steel production will support metallurgical coal imports
    • CIL production limited by demand
    • Seaborne thermal imports take a hit for now

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

Images

  • Key thermal prices - history/forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Key met prices - history/forecast, nominal US$/t
  • CIL performance in spot market, Mt and %
  • CFR India prices of imported coal, US$/t
  • Delivered cost comparison to a western power plant, US$/t
  • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
  • Monthly hydro-power generation, TWh
  • Domestic coal stocks at power plants, Mt
  • Imported coal stocks at power plants, Mt
  • CIL raw coal production, Mt
  • CIL coal despatches, Mt
  • Supply: Image 3

Tables

  • Key market data table

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