Commodity market report
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8 Pages

India coal short-term outlook April 2017: falling seaborne prices to support imports


India coal short-term outlook April 2017: falling seaborne prices to support imports

Report summary

Increasing domestic production, weak demand and high seaborne prices put thermal coal imports under pressure in the near term. India's government also helped to boost domestic demand by ordering state-owned utilities not to use imports. High seaborne prices, due China importing 30 Mt more seaborne thermal coal last year , have impacted the competitiveness of imports. India's imported coal prices have risen between 50-70% in 2016, resulting in a 7 Mt fall in thermal coal imports in 2016. As Coal India continues to improve its supply, outlook for thermal coal imports remains depressed. However, falling seaborne prices in second half of the year will provide downside support. Thermal coal imports will fall to 146 Mt this year and 142 Mt in 2018.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • India coal short-term outlook April 2017: falling seaborne prices to support imports PDF - 491.96 KB 8 Pages, 1 Tables, 12 Figures
  • cms india short term outlook april 2017.xls XLS - 746.00 KB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Domestic spot prices remain under pressure over weak offtake
  • Demand
    • Thermal coal imports under pressure from protectionism
    • Improvement in steel production will support metallurgical coal imports
  • Supply
    • CIL production limited by demand
    • Seaborne thermal imports take a hit for now

In this report there are 13 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data table
  • Prices
    • Key thermal prices - history/forecast, nominal US$/t
    • Key met prices - history/forecast, nominal US$/t
    • CIL performance in spot market, Mt and %
    • CFR India prices of imported coal, US$/t
    • Delivered cost comparison to a western power plant, US$/t
  • Demand
    • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
    • Monthly hydro-power generation, TWh
    • Domestic coal stocks at power plants, Mt
    • Imported coal stocks at power plants, Mt
  • Supply
    • CIL raw coal production, Mt
    • CIL coal despatches, Mt
    • Supply: Image 3
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