India coal short-term outlook January 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 04 January 2023

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Report summary

India’s thermal coal demand remained robust during Q4. Monsoon withdrawal led to a fall in hydro generation, boosting coal burn in Q4. Resumption of construction activities, which remained subdued during the monsoon, also fueled the coal demand growth. Domestic supply also regained its momentum during the quarter, after facing challenges during the monsoon season. As a result, thermal coal imports are expected to have declined significantly in Q4 versus Q3. Thermal coal demand is forecast to remain solid going forward. However, with domestic supplies staying healthy, imports will remain under pressure in the near term. After remaining subdued in Q4, we expect steel production to improve gradually as we enter 2023 on the back of a revival in steel exports and strong domestic demand. Subsequently, met coal imports will also rebound in Q1 on re-stocking interest and improved downstream demand. Read on to find out more about these issues and our forecast for the Indian coal market.

High premiums in the spot market to continue as demand remains robust
Strengthening economic activities to keep thermal coal demand strong in 2023
Met coal demand to rebound in Q1 2023 on restocking interest and improved downstream demand
Domestic supplies to remain robust in 2023 to complement demand growth
The sixth round of commercial coal mine auctions launched
India slashes export duty on steel, extends RoDTEP scheme and re-imposes import duty on coking coal and coke