Commodity market report
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8 Pages

India coal short-term outlook June 2016


India coal short-term outlook June 2016

Report summary

Coal India Limited is worried about rising stocks and weak domestic demand. Worse still, its margins are under pressure from competitive imports. Spot sales fell to 46% of offered quantity in Q2, and the price premium dropped to 20% of the reserve price. We believe its production growth plans will unlikely be scaled back. Instead, protectionism and aggressive pricing will increase. What are the options?

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • India coal short-term outlook June 2016 PDF - 785.84 KB 8 Pages, 1 Tables, 12 Figures
  • cms india short term outlook june 2016 final.xls XLS - 652.50 KB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Coal India revises prices: down for high energy coal and up for low energy coal
  • Demand
    • Strong growth in power generation in Q2: is it enough to absorb coal stocks?
    • High energy thermal coal market: who can price in?
    • Indian steel mills settle Q3 2016 metallurgical coal supply
  • Supply
    • Protectionism: raise import tax, or develop export markets?

In this report there are 13 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • CIL performance in the spot market, Mt and %
    • CFR India prices of imported coal, US$/t
    • Thermal prices: history and f'cast, US$/t nominal
    • Metallurgical prices: history and f'cast, US$ nominal
  • Demand
    • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
    • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
    • Domestic coal stocks at power plants, Mt
    • Imported coal stocks at power plants, Mt
    • 2016 high energy seaborne thermal coal delivered cost curve India west coast, US$/t
  • Supply
    • CFR Bangladesh - high energy thermal coal supply options and CIL competitiveness
    • CIL raw coal production, Mt
    • CIL coal despatches, Mt
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