Commodity Market Report
Metallurgical coal market short-term outlook October 2021
Report summary
October’s metallurgical coal prices rested easy in the market penthouse after last month’s rapid elevator ride to the top. Prices saw little movement with FOB Australia at US$400/t and CFR China at US$600/t. Though developing market conditions will coax prices down out of their comfy loft. Chinese steel cuts grew over the month, quickened by the energy crunch. Steel demand in China and Europe is concerning, though India remains robust. Domestic Chinese met coal supply continues to disappoint. Escalating the supply situation is continuing tightness of seaborne imports and Mongolian landborne imports. The question is how the evolving market will ultimately shape prices. Despite near-term supply tightness, the gravity of China’s steel cuts is starting to take hold with demand losses gaining steam. Australian supply will improve, the energy crisis will resolve and fiscal tightening will increase. We continue to expect prices to gradually decline into Q4 and over 2022.
Table of contents
- Chinese demand outlook concerning but supply will remain tight through Q1 2022
- China: crude steel production continues its slowdown
- China: real estate under pressure
- India: demand largely unhampered, despite coal crisis in the country
- Japan: showing positive economic signs but auto shortages a near-term concern
- Europe: weakening demand and high input costs weigh on steel
- Indonesia: new merchant coke plants to drive met coal import demand
- Australia: Queensland met coal throughput falls across all its ports in September
- Australia: BHP records worst quarter since Cyclone Debbie in 2017
- Australia: Q3 met coal production up across the board
- Canada: global supply recovery adds restarted Grande Cache coal production
- Canada: Montem Resources pivots Tent Mountain project over to renewables
- Russia: Elga private rail line gets second look
- US: producers set domestic contracts, small production additions in the pipeline
- Mozambique: Moatize’s upgrade showing positive results
Tables and charts
This report includes 11 images and tables including:
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- Indian coke imports and exports
- Indian metallurgical coal imports
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Crude steel production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Queensland ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt per month)
- BMA quarterly production (Mt)
- Australia met coal production by company (Mt)
- Historical Grande Cache Coal production (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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