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Near-term US coal gas substitution

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10 August 2015

Near-term US coal gas substitution

Report summary

We forecast annual average natural gas prices will remain below US$3.00/mmbtu in 2015 and 2016. This price level will act as a price ceiling for thermal coal demand from electric generating units (EGU) and coal prices. However,  recent history has proven natural gas prices are quite volatile. Wood Mackenzie offers projections for coal demand in the short-term at various natural gas price levels.

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Upcoming trends in coal-gas displacement
  • Domestic basin thermal EGU coal demand by natural gas price

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Natural gas prices versus weighted average EGU coal costs
  • 2015 Coal contracts under pressure
  • Total utility coal demand in 2015 by Henry Hub natural gas price
  • Total utility coal demand in 2016 by Henry Hub natural gas price
  • 2016 Northern Appalachia thermal EGU coal demand by Henry Hub natural gas price
  • 2016 Illinois Basin thermal EGU coal demand by Henry Hub natural gas price
  • 2016 Powder River Basin thermal EGU coal demand by Henry Hub natural gas price
  • Coal price change in 2016 by change in Henry Hub natural gas price

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Near-term US coal gas substitution

    PDF 297.53 KB