Commodity market report
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12 Pages

North America coal long-term outlook H1 2016

North America coal long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

Once again, the outlook for North American coal markets is dominated by natural gas prices and environmental regulations. Natural gas is expected to be competitive with coal, at some level, throughout the forecast period. Environmental regulations will impact the cost to mine and consume coal adding to the level of competition with gas and eventually will cap the total amount of fossil fuel consumed. In response, coal producers seek to lower the cost of production to remain competitive.

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • North America coal long-term outlook H1 2016 PDF - 957.34 KB 12 Pages, 2 Tables, 12 Figures
  • North America Coal Markets Long term Outlook H1 2016.pdf PDF - 1.73 MB
  • CMS Executive Summary June.xls XLS - 13.79 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Introduction
    • Key Findings
    • Key issues and uncertainties
    • Market fundamentals and what has changed since H2 2015
      • Environmental Policy Assumptions
    • Prices
    • Supply
    • Demand

In this report there are 14 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • US supply/demand balance (Mst) (real 2016 US$)
    • High and low natural gas price assumptions
    • High and Low gas sensitivity variance from base case for basin thermal coal production
    • Executive summary: Image 3
    • Executive summary: Image 4
    • Executive summary: Image 5
    • Executive summary: Image 6
    • Assumed probability, timing, and impact of risks
    • Total and renewable generation (TWh)
    • Executive summary: Table 2
    • Executive summary: Image 9
    • Market coal price history and forecast (real 2016 US$)
    • US thermal coal supply outlook (Mst)
    • US coal demand by sector outlook (Mst)
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