Commodity Market Report

North America coal long-term outlook H1 2016

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27 June 2016

North America coal long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

Once again, the outlook for North American coal markets is dominated by natural gas prices and environmental regulations. Natural gas is expected to be competitive with coal, at some level, throughout the forecast period. Environmental regulations will impact the cost to mine and consume coal adding to the level of competition with gas and eventually will cap the total amount of fossil fuel consumed. In response, coal producers seek to lower the cost of production to remain competitive.

Table of contents

    • Introduction
    • Key Findings
    • Key issues and uncertainties
    • Market fundamentals and what has changed since H2 2015
      • Environmental Policy Assumptions
    • Prices
    • Supply
    • Demand

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • US supply/demand balance (Mst) (real 2016 US$)
  • High and low natural gas price assumptions
  • High and Low gas sensitivity variance from base case for basin thermal coal production
  • Executive summary: Image 3
  • Executive summary: Image 4
  • Executive summary: Image 5
  • Executive summary: Image 6
  • Assumed probability, timing, and impact of risks
  • Total and renewable generation (TWh)
  • Market coal price history and forecast (real 2016 US$)
  • US thermal coal supply outlook (Mst)
  • US coal demand by sector outlook (Mst)
  • Executive summary: Table 2
  • Executive summary: Image 9

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    North America Coal Markets Long term Outlook H1 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.73 MB

  • Document

    CMS Executive Summary June.xls

    XLS 13.79 MB

  • Document

    North America coal long-term outlook H1 2016

    PDF 957.34 KB

  • Document

    North America coal long-term outlook H1 2016

    ZIP 16.10 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 797.56 KB

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