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North America coal long-term outlook H1 2017 - near-term rebound short lived

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17 July 2017

North America coal long-term outlook H1 2017 - near-term rebound short lived

Report summary

US coal demand declined to it's lowest level in 35 years in 2016 as natural gas prices plummeted in order to stimulate demand by displacing coal for electrical generation. Electric generating unit (EGU) operators of coal-fired units reduced consumption resulting in higher stockpiles and postponed or cancelled coal deliveries. Spot coal prices fell and fewer new coal contracts were signed. Wood Mackenzie projects that coal will continue to be challenged by natural gas over our forecast period, especially when our assumptions for carbon regulations are introduced in 2028.

Table of contents

    • Near-term rebound short-lived
    • Near-term: 2017 and 2018
    • Long-term: 2023 to 2028:
    • Long-term, post carbon regulation: 2029 to 2040
      • Coal Price Forecast (real 2017 US$/st)
      • US supply/demand balance (Volume - Mst, Prices - real 2017 US$/st )
    • Key Issues and Uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • US thermal coal supply outlook (Mst)
  • Near-term forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
  • Mid-term forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
  • Long-term 2023 to 2028 forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
  • Long-term post carbon regulation forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
  • Executive summary: Image 6
  • Executive summary: Table 1

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    CMS Executive Summary July.xls

    XLS 383.50 KB

  • Document

    North American Coal Long Term Outlook H1 2017.pdf

    PDF 4.53 MB

  • Document

    North America coal long-term outlook H1 2017 - near-term rebound short lived

    PDF 513.72 KB

  • Document

    North America coal long-term outlook H1 2017 - near-term rebound short lived

    ZIP 5.08 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 353.96 KB