Commodity market report

North America coal long-term outlook H2 2015

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Report summary

Competition from natural gas and climate change regulations dominate the outlook for North American thermal coal. The super abundance of natural gas developed from new technologies applied to tight oil and shale gas have driven North American natural gas prices down sharply. Cleaner burning and efficient, natural gas can often generate electricity less expensively than coal in much of US. The competitiveness of natural gas is significantly reducing the demand for coal to generate electricity – a market segment that makes up 90% of coal demand in North America. Natural gas/coal competition will dominate coal market fundamentals in the near-term.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    CMS North America Coal Markets Long-term Outlook H2 2015.pdf

    PDF 1.71 MB

  • Document

    CMS Executive Summary November.xls

    XLS 13.80 MB

  • Document

    North America coal long-term outlook H2 2015

    PDF 1.18 MB

  • Document

    North America coal long-term outlook H2 2015

    ZIP 16.35 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 1.02 MB

Table of contents

    • Introduction
    • Outlook Summary
    • Key Issues
    • Market fundamentals and what has changed since H1 2015
    • Prices
    • Supply
    • Demand
    • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:


  • Henry Hub gas price forecast (Real 2015 US$/mmbtu)
  • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Market coal price history and forecast (Real 2015 US$)
  • US thermal coal supply outlook (Mst)
  • US coal demand by sector
  • Assumed probability, timing, and impact of risks


  • US supply/demand balance (Mst)

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