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North America coal long-term outlook H2 2017: The last rally?

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18 December 2017

North America coal long-term outlook H2 2017: The last rally?

Report summary

US coal demand and prices rallied in 2017, after collapsing natural gas prices in 2016 allowed natural gas to displace significant coal demand for electric generation. A rally in natural gas prices in 2017 led the way for a recovery in coal markets but the recovery will be short-lived. A glut of natural gas supply will push coal out of electricity markets over the short term while increased renewable generation and carbon regulation will prevent a long-term recovery for coal.

Table of contents

    • Key Findings
      • Near-term: 2018 to 2020: declining domestic coal generation
      • Mid-term: 2021 to 2028: Stabilization
      • Mid-term forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
      • Long-term: 2029 to 2040: constrained by carbon emissions
      • Key Issues and Uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

  • US thermal coal supply outlook (Mst)
  • Near-term forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
  • Executive summary: Image 3
  • Long-term forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
  • Coal Price Forecast (Real 2017 US$/st)
  • US supply/demand balance (Volume - Mst, Prices - Real 2017 US$/st)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    CMS Executive Summary December.xls

    XLS 1.90 MB

  • Document

    North America coal long-term outlook H2 2017: The last rally?

    PDF 554.94 KB

  • Document

    North America coal long-term outlook H2 2017: The last rally?

    ZIP 3.26 MB

  • Document

    North American Coal Long Term Outlook H2 2017.pdf

    PDF 2.58 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 395.02 KB