Commodity Market Report

North America coal long-term outlook H2 2017: The last rally?

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Report summary

US coal demand and prices rallied in 2017, after collapsing natural gas prices in 2016 allowed natural gas to displace significant coal demand for electric generation. A rally in natural gas prices in 2017 led the way for a recovery in coal markets but the recovery will be short-lived. A glut of natural gas supply will push coal out of electricity markets over the short term while increased renewable generation and carbon regulation will prevent a long-term recovery for coal.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    CMS Executive Summary December.xls

    XLS 1.90 MB

  • Document

    North America coal long-term outlook H2 2017: The last rally?

    PDF 554.94 KB

  • Document

    North America coal long-term outlook H2 2017: The last rally?

    ZIP 3.26 MB

  • Document

    North American Coal Long Term Outlook H2 2017.pdf

    PDF 2.58 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 395.02 KB

Table of contents

      • Near-term: 2018 to 2020: declining domestic coal generation
      • Mid-term: 2021 to 2028: Stabilization
      • Mid-term forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
      • Long-term: 2029 to 2040: constrained by carbon emissions
      • Key Issues and Uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

Tables

  • US supply/demand balance (Volume - Mst, Prices - Real 2017 US$/st)

Images

  • US thermal coal supply outlook (Mst)
  • Near-term forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
  • Executive summary: Image 3
  • Long-term forecast of US coal supply and demand (Mst)
  • Coal Price Forecast (Real 2017 US$/st)

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