Commodity market report
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24 Pages

North America coal markets long-term outlook H1 2014

North America coal markets long-term outlook H1 2014

Report summary

A cold 2013-2014 winter promised hope for a rebound in coal demand that was cut short by railroad performance issues as all major US railroads struggled with the inclement weather.  Coal plant retirements and future carbon regulations create weak domestic coal demand in the mid and long-term.  In the long-term export demand is strong enough to drive an increase in overall coal production and to lift prices. 

What's included?

This report includes 11 file(s)

  • North America coal markets long-term outlook H1 2014 PDF - 882.79 KB 24 Pages, 0 Tables, 23 Figures
  • 1 US Coal LTO Executive Summary 6 6 2014.xls XLS - 10.45 MB
  • 2 US Coal LTO Demand Analysis 7 7 2014.xls XLS - 488.00 KB
  • 3 US Coal LTO Environment and Emissions Data 7 9 2014.xls XLS - 8.92 MB
  • 4 US Coal LTO Basin Level Analysis 7 10 2014.xls XLS - 1.03 MB
  • 5 US Coal LTO Total Coal Production 6 6 2014.xls XLS - 489.00 KB
  • 6 US Coal LTO Prices Coal Gas and Emissions 6 6 2014.xls XLS - 736.50 KB
  • 7 US Coal LTO Census Region Analysis 6 6 2014.xls XLS - 1.68 MB
  • 8 US Coal LTO Unit Coal Choices 6 6 2014.xls XLS - 4.27 MB
  • 9 US Coal LTO Unit Coal Economics 6 6 2014.xls XLS - 20.38 MB
  • LTO Graph ZIP - 7.79 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • H1 2014 long-term outlook
    • Assumption updates
      • US supply/demand balance (Mst)
      • US thermal coal outlook (Mst)
      • Market coal price forecast (Real 2014 US$)
    • Key issues
    • Key market data
      • Base case GHG policy assumptions
      • Base case multi-pollutant policy assumptions
    • Market implications
  • Prices
    • Market coal price forecast factors (Real 2012 US$)
  • Economic outlook
    • US and Canadian GDP growth (real), and inflation (annual historical and forecast data)
  • Policy and regulation
    • Scrubber status of EGUs (GW)
    • CO2 price comparison (US$/metric tonne)
    • Base case GHG policy assumptions
    • Base case multi-pollutant policy assumptions
  • Demand
    • US coal demand by sector
    • Generation mix outlook
    • US thermal coal demand growth compared to 2013
    • Electricity Demand Outlook
    • US natural gas demand by sector (bcfd)
    • Henry Hub gas price forecast (Real 2012 US$/mmbtu)
  • Supply
    • CAPP
    • NAPP
    • ILB
    • PRB
    • Colorado/Utah
    • Other
      • US thermal coal supply outlook (Mst)
  • Infrastructure
    • Domestic
    • Exports
      • US coal exporting terminals and major US coal exporting basins
      • US coal exporting capacity by port
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Assumed probability, timing and impact of risks*

In this report there are 23 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • Executive summary: Image 2
    • Executive summary: Image 3
    • Executive summary: Image 4
    • Executive summary: Image 5
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
  • Economic outlook
    • Regional GDP growth
    • Regional GDP growth - 17-Year CAGR (2013 - 2030)
    • Economic outlook: Image 3
  • Policy and regulation
    • Policy and regulation: Image 1
    • Policy and regulation: Image 2
    • Policy and regulation: Image 3
    • Policy and regulation: Image 4
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Demand: Image 6
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 1
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