Commodity market report
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25 Pages

North America coal markets long-term outlook H2 2013

North America coal markets long-term outlook H2 2013

Report summary

US coal demand will recover in 2014 and 2015 to about 1.1 Bstpa with higher natural gas prices and slightly stronger electricity demand outlook.  Demand will slump again in 2016 as 53 GW of coal fired generation retires rather than retrofit clean-up equipment to comply with the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS).  Demand begins to grow again in the years following MATS as surviving coal plants run at higher capacity levels as gas prices increase and the economy continues to strengthen. 

What's included?

This report includes 20 file(s)

  • North America coal markets long-term outlook H2 2013 PDF - 867.72 KB 25 Pages, 1 Tables, 20 Figures
  • 1 US Coal LTO Executive Summary Nov 2013.xls XLS - 11.85 MB
  • 2 US Coal LTO Demand Analysis Nov 2013.xls XLS - 698.50 KB
  • 3 US Coal LTO Environment and Emissions Data Nov 2013.xls XLS - 9.01 MB
  • 4 US Coal LTO Basin Level Analysis Nov 2013.xls XLS - 1.04 MB
  • 5 US Coal LTO Total Coal Production Nov 2013.xls XLS - 464.50 KB
  • 6 US Coal LTO Prices Coal Gas and Emissions Nov 2013.xls XLS - 761.50 KB
  • 7 US Coal LTO Census Region Analysis Nov 2013.xls XLS - 1.67 MB
  • 8 US Coal LTO Unit Coal Choices Nov 2013.xls XLS - 3.79 MB
  • 9 US Coal LTO Unit Coal Economics Nov 2013.xls XLS - 21.20 MB
  • 10 Canada Coal LTO Key Data Nov 2013.xls XLS - 1.66 MB
  • 11 Mexico Coal LTO Key Data Nov 2013.xls XLS - 173.00 KB
  • LTO Graph ZIP - 6.15 MB
  • North America coal markets long-term outlook H2 2013 PDF - 1.29 MB
  • NoCarbon CMS NA Demand Analysis H2 2013.xls XLS - 142.00 KB
  • NoCarbon CMS NA Prices Coal Gas and Emissions H2 2013.xls XLS - 656.50 KB
  • NoCarbon CMS NA Environment and Emissions Data H2 2013.xls XLS - 5.02 MB
  • NoCarbon CMS NA Unit Coal Economics H2 2013.xls XLS - 20.04 MB
  • NoCarbon CMS NA Unit Coal Choices H2 2013.xls XLS - 4.02 MB
  • NoCarbon CMS NA Total Coal Production H2 2013.xls XLS - 428.50 KB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key issues
    • Key market data
    • What’s changed?
    • Market implications
      • Near term markets – The tone has been set
      • Mid term markets – laying the ground work for the future
      • Long term markets – exports, exports, exports
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Carbon policy forecast rationale and assumptions
      • Carbon policy timing
      • Carbon policy pricing level
      • Regional GHG efforts
  • Supply
    • CAPP
    • NAPP
    • ILB
    • PRB
    • Colorado/Utah
    • Other
  • Demand
    • US demand – driven by the power production
    • Electricity demand
    • Gas market
  • Infrastructure
    • Domestic
    • Export
  • Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 21 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • US thermal coal outlook (Mst)
    • Executive summary: Image 2
    • US supply/demand balance (Mst)
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Image 1
    • Economic outlook: Image 2
    • Economic outlook: Image 3
  • Policy and regulation
    • Scrubber status of EGUs (GW)
    • CO2 price comparison (US$/metric tonne)
    • Base case GHG policy assumptions
    • Base case multi-pollutant policy assumptions
  • Supply
    • US thermal coal supply outlook (Mst)
  • Demand
    • US coal demand by sector
    • Generation mix outlook
    • US thermal coal demand growth compared to 2013
    • Electricity Demand Outlook
    • US natural gas demand by sector (bcfd)
    • Henry Hub gas price forecast (Real 2012 US$/mmbtu)
  • Infrastructure
    • US coal exporting terminals and major US coal exporting basins
    • Infrastructure: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Market coal price forecast factors (Real 2012 US$)
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Assumed probability, timing and impact of risks*
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