Commodity market report
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8 Pages

North America coal short-term outlook February 2016


North America coal short-term outlook February 2016

Report summary

 Coal stockpile levels at utilities are near historical highs. Utilities ended 2015 with stockpiles at 197 Mst, a 46 Mst increase over last year. The mild start to winter has raised concerns about the availability of future natural gas storage as injection season begins again in March. The storage concern is putting downward pressure on gas prices, in order to move volume, and is causing coal to be further displaced in base-load power generation. Coal producers have been under pressure to re-negotiate contracts for reduced tons or later deliveries but many depend on the cash-flow to make debt payments and avoid bankruptcy. Coal to gas switching continues to be the hot topic in the industry but there is uncertainty over how much additional coal generation can be won at any price given coal contract terms and stockpile limitations. Wood Mackenzie projects that there will be another massive reduction in total US coal production of 110 Mst this year.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • North America coal short-term outlook February 2016 PDF - 474.81 KB 8 Pages, 3 Tables, 4 Figures
  • WM Coal Monthly North America February.xls XLS - 3.96 MB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key Market Data
    • Total US Supply Demand Balance (Mst)
  • Prices
  • Demand
    • Economy and GDP
  • Supply
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply-demand balances

In this report there are 7 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Coal Prices - history and forecast (FOB mine)
  • Demand
    • EIA Electricity Net Generation history (TWh)
    • December 2015 State Leading Indexes
  • Supply
    • 2016 Thermal Coal production cuts/delays announced (Mst)
    • Supply: Table 2
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply-demand balances
    • US coal stockpiles (Mst)
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Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

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At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.