Commodity market report

North America coal short-term outlook February 2017: Reversing the Trend

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Report summary

This Winter will likely go on record as the warmest in 20 years. Henry Hub prices have dropped rapidly since the first sign of daffodils in February. The March 2017 contract traded below US$2.70/mmbtu late this month down from US$3.50/mmbtu at beginning of the year. However the story for 2017 remains a return to coal story. Coal demand was strong heading into the New Year and January burn levels were also strong. All the fundamental pieces are still in place for higher natural gas prices to return in early Summer leading to higher coal generation.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    WM Coal Monthly North America February 2017.xls

    XLS 4.60 MB

  • Document

    North America coal short-term outlook February 2017: Reversing the Trend

    PDF 1.32 MB

  • Document

    North America coal short-term outlook February 2017: Reversing the Trend

    ZIP 3.98 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Political developments
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:

Images

  • Coal prices - history and forecast (FOB mine)
  • MSHA year-end review
  • Projected 2017 coal production, consumption and change in stocks
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Natural Gas supply/demand balance on a weather adjusted basis
  • Natural Gas storage forecast
  • Monthly Henry Hub gas price history and forecast
  • US temperature forecast for Spring 2017
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Annual coal vs. natural gas energy generation
  • Monthly coal & natural gas generation vs. Henry Hub
  • US thermal coal demand growth*
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Powder River Basin netback prices into South Korea

Tables

  • Executive summary: Table 1

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