Commodity market report
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10 Pages

North America coal short-term outlook January 2016

North America coal short-term outlook January 2016

Report summary

2015 coal production reached its lowest level since 1986, while annual average Henry Hub natural gas prices reached lows not seen since 1999. Any rebound in domestic demand in 2016 will be limited as EGUs over-contracted for coal deliveries in 2015 and warmer than normal fourth quarter resulted in bloated stockpiles. Fully 25% of US based coal production is now produced by companies in or just recovering from bankruptcy.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • North America coal short-term outlook January 2016 PDF - 432.59 KB 10 Pages, 1 Tables, 11 Figures
  • WM Coal Monthly North America January.xls XLS - 3.96 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
  • Demand
    • International
  • Supply
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply-demand balances

In this report there are 12 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Total US Supply Demand Balance (Mst)
  • Prices
    • Coal prices - history and forecast (FOB mine)
  • Demand
    • US heating degree days
    • ARA delivered coal cost curve in 2015 US$/t
    • NAPP netback prices into ARA
    • PRB netback prices into South Korea
  • Supply
    • PRB reserves and year remaining at current production levels
  • Infrastructure
    • Total US class 1 railcar loads
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Infrastructure: Image 3
  • Supply-demand balances
    • US coal EGU stockpile capacity
    • US coal stockpiles (Mst)
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Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

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At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.