Commodity Market Report

North America coal short-term outlook January 2017: Warmer weather dampens market upside

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31 January 2017

North America coal short-term outlook January 2017: Warmer weather dampens market upside

Report summary

Demand for coal will trend 8% higher in 2017 as the market bounces back from 2016 multi-year lows. However, further upside from that forecast appears limited as weather has been trending warmer than normal this winter. International coal prices will continue to fall in the coming months. However, the international market lately has shown a decreasing influence on US domestic coal markets. On 11 January 2017, the United States Bureau of Land Management – under the previous administration - issued its "Comprehensive Roadmap to Reform Federal Coal Program." The BLM's high-level suggestions include increases in the royalty rate, requiring higher bonus payments or charging the estimated social cost of global warming emissions for coal from public lands. The BLM is still focusing on balancing higher disparate goals of increasing revenue from publicly owned coal or accounting for greenhouse gas emissions which would likely end coal mining from public lands.

Table of contents

    • Key market data
    • Recent developments
    • Forward Markets
    • Forecast
      • Coal prices - history and forecast (FOB mine)
    • Weather and electricity demand
      • Total Electricity Generation (TWh)
    • Coal demand
    • International
    • Leasing of coal from public lands
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 16 images and tables including:

  • PRB production and weekly hours
  • PRB workers and productivity
  • Total US class 1 railcar loads
  • Coal train speed
  • Coal train dwell time
  • US coal stockpiles (Mst)
  • Total US Supply Demand Balance (Mst)
  • PRB forward curve
  • NAPP forward curve
  • US heating degree days
  • Coal-fired Generation (TWh)
  • ARA delivered coal cost curve in 2016 (US$/t)
  • NAPP netback prices into ARA
  • PRB netback prices into South Korea
  • Prices: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    WM Coal Monthly North America January 2017.xls

    XLS 4.60 MB

  • Document

    North America coal short-term outlook January 2017: Warmer weather dampens market upside

    PDF 455.95 KB

  • Document

    North America coal short-term outlook January 2017: Warmer weather dampens market upside

    ZIP 3.11 MB