Commodity market report
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9 Pages

North America coal short-term outlook May 2016

North America coal short-term outlook May 2016

Report summary

We expect 2017 to be a stand out year for coal demand given certain forces already in motion within the natural gas industry to scale-back supply. We see this temporary turn of events leading to a 58% rise in natural gas price in 2017 allowing coal producers an opportunity to right-size operations and utilities an opportunity to manage burgeoning stockpiles. Ultra-low gas prices this year and growth in renewables has shifted dispatch away from coal plants. Coal-fired power generation is expected to end the year 15% lower than 2015.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • North America coal short-term outlook May 2016 PDF - 373.05 KB 9 Pages, 1 Tables, 6 Figures
  • WM Coal Monthly North America May.xls XLS - 4.07 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
      • Total US Supply-Demand Balance (Mst)
  • Prices
  • Demand
    • Power Demand
    • Changing weather patterns could lead to colder a Winter in coal dependent states
    • Winds of change for power demand
    • International Trade and global economic growth
    • A temporary reprieve for coal over-supply
  • Supply
    • Bankruptcy may produce a "first mover " advantage
    • Still room to boom?
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply-demand balances

In this report there are 7 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Coal Prices: History and Forecast
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Daily average wind generation and estimated equivalent gas burn for power (4/1/16 -4/21/16)
  • Supply
  • Infrastructure
    • Total US class I rail car loads
  • Supply-demand balances
    • EGU Stockpiles by census region (Mst)
    • US natural gas storage inventories (bcf)
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Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.