With Peabody Energy's election to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US, comes speculation about the future of its Australian coal assets. We expect the most likely path forward for Peabody is to continue to operate its 10 Australian mines on a business-as-usual basis as our analysis suggests their average cash margin remains positive in 2016. While we forecast several of Peabody's Australian assets to run at negative cash margins in 2016, we expect Peabody will continue to operate these assets due to take-or-pay rail and port commitments and other fixed costs.
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Cost reductions reduce the margin squeeze
Take or pay obligations incentivise continued operation