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8 Pages

Russian coking coal exports struggle to reach potential


Russian coking coal exports struggle to reach potential

Report summary

Despite the support from the weak Rouble, Russian metallurgical coal exports failed to grow in 2015. The key factors limiting growth were a combination of higher margins for domestic sales, stable domestic demand, and tightening supply. Weak demand in the international market was another fundamental constraint. We expect these factors will continue affecting Russian metallurgical coal exports in 2016. 

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  • Russian coking coal exports struggle to reach potential PDF - 376.06 KB 8 Pages, 0 Tables, 8 Figures

Description

This Coal Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

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  • Executive summary
  • The weak Rouble advantage in 2015 failed to translate into stronger exports
    • Port infrastructure not a constraint in 2015
    • Stronger domestic margins keep coal at home
      • Domestic prices supported by Rouble devaluation, strong demand and supply issues
      • Domestic sales margins are higher
    • Low demand for imported coal
  • Outlook for 2016: A surge in Russian exports is unlikely
    • Domestic supply will remain tight this year
    • Cost increases making future exports uncertain
    • Demand in key markets is flat or falling
  • Conclusion

In this report there are 8 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • The weak Rouble advantage in 2015 failed to translate into stronger exports
    • Russian seaborne metallurgical coal exports 2010-2015
    • Russian Far East port throughput and capacity
    • Domestic coking coal prices vs Rouble exchange rate
    • 2015 export vs domestic margin estimation – Kuzbass region coking coal mine
    • Metallurgical coal trade 2015 vs 2014
    • Russian coking coal exports 2015 vs 2014
  • Outlook for 2016: A surge in Russian exports is unlikely
    • 2016 export vs domestic margin estimation – Kuzbass region coking coal mine
  • Conclusion
    • Russian metallurgical seaborne exports 2016 – 2020
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