Commodity market report
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10 Pages

Strong Q1 price, but lowering over 2017: Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook December 2016


Strong Q1 price, but lowering over 2017: Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook December 2016

Report summary

After a number of years of declining prices, the second half of 2016 turned exciting for metallurgical coal producers. Spot prices grew to nearly US$315/t and then began to ebb, as supply constraints began to turn around. The Q1 contract price or for hard coking coal settled at US$285/t, compared to the already strong price of US$200/t for the previous quarter. As more of the proposed production increases materialise, the price should fall to US$123/t by the end of 2017.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Strong Q1 price, but lowering over 2017: Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook December 2016 PDF - 341.95 KB 10 Pages, 1 Tables, 7 Figures
  • CMS metallurgical trade short term outlook December.xls XLS - 2.01 MB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Metallurgical Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Key metallurgical coal prices - historical and forecast (US$/t)
  • Supply
    • Queensland’s exports increase from the low volumes in October
      • Queensland ports: metallurgical exports (Mt)
    • Australia’s two longwall mines return to production
    • US export growth starts to develop
      • US metallurgical coal exports - Hampton Roads (mt)
    • Northern Appalachian producers increasing exports
    • Southern Appalachia also expanding output
    • Russian producers are also increasing output
  • Demand
    • China’s Q1 steel production and coal demand to lighten
    • Ilva and Riva reach deal on funds for environmental cleanup
    • European Economy performing stronger than expected
    • Tata Steel’s Port Talbot will continue producing for at least five years
    • The Trump presidency may not enormously boost metallurgical coal
    • US Federal Reserve raises interest rates

In this report there are 8 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
  • Demand
    • Global & Chinese steel production (Mt)
    • Steel production - other major producers (Mt)
    • Global & China blast furnace iron production (Mt)
    • Blast furnace iron production - other major producers (Mt)
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