Name: Thermal coal in a carbon-conscious world: the IEA 450 Scenario
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 47926
Price: 4750 USD
Availability: OnlineOnly
Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 03 August 2016

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Report summary

The call for a low-carbon economy has grown louder since the COP21 accord in Paris in December 2015. The world is becoming increasingly conscious of the potential harm caused by carbon emissions but has yet to agree on a clear path towards reducing those emissions. In this insight, we examine the impact of the adoption of the IEA's New Policies Scenario (NPS) and its 450 Scenario on our latest forecast of global thermal coal supply, demand and prices.

Executive summary
Scenario definition
- IEA New Policies Scenario (NPS)
- IEA 450 Scenario
- Wood Mackenzie base case
What assumptions differentiate the IEA scenarios from our base case?
- Macroeconomic growth
Demand: the IEA 450 Scenario sees thermal trade fall to 527 Mt in 2035
- Summary
- Regional explanation
- Implications for the seaborne trade: coal quality is all important
Supply: the IEA 450 Scenario sees Indonesian exports fall below 200 Mtpa by 2035
- Summary
- Regional explanation
Prices: US$50/t FOB Newcastle could be the new norm
Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Key assumptions and drivers in scenariosFOB Newcastle price comparison, US$/t (real 2016)Global CO2 emissions (Mt)

Thermal coal demand summary in each scenario (Mt)Global thermal coal demand comparison (Mt)Seaborne thermal coal demand comparison (Mt)Thermal coal supply summary in each scenario (Mt)Australia export supply comparison (Mt)Indonesia export supply comparison (Mt)