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10 Pages

Thermal coal in a carbon-conscious world: the IEA 450 Scenario


Thermal coal in a carbon-conscious world: the IEA 450 Scenario

Report summary

The call for a low-carbon economy has grown louder since the COP21 accord in Paris in December 2015. The world is becoming increasingly conscious of the potential harm caused by carbon emissions but has yet to agree on a clear path towards reducing those emissions. In this insight, we examine the impact of the adoption of the IEA's New Policies Scenario (NPS) and its 450 Scenario on our latest forecast of global thermal coal supply, demand and prices.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Thermal coal in a carbon-conscious world: the IEA 450 Scenario PDF - 340.74 KB 10 Pages, 3 Tables, 6 Figures
  • Thermal coal in a carbon-conscious world.xls XLS - 339.50 KB

Description

This Coal Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

Participants, suppliers and advisors can use it to look at the trends, risks and issues within the coal industry and gain an alternative point of view when making decisions.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets.

Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future decision making. From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Scenario definition
    • IEA New Policies Scenario (NPS)
    • IEA 450 Scenario
    • Wood Mackenzie base case
  • What assumptions differentiate the IEA scenarios from our base case?
    • Macroeconomic growth
  • Demand: the IEA 450 Scenario sees thermal trade fall to 527 Mt in 2035
    • Summary
    • Regional explanation
    • Implications for the seaborne trade: coal quality is all important
  • Supply: the IEA 450 Scenario sees Indonesian exports fall below 200 Mtpa by 2035
    • Summary
    • Regional explanation
  • Prices: US$50/t FOB Newcastle could be the new norm
  • Conclusion

In this report there are 9 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Scenario definition
    • Global CO2 emissions (Mt)
  • What assumptions differentiate the IEA scenarios from our base case?
    • Key assumptions and drivers in scenarios
  • Demand: the IEA 450 Scenario sees thermal trade fall to 527 Mt in 2035
    • Thermal coal demand summary in each scenario (Mt)
    • Global thermal coal demand comparison (Mt)
    • Seaborne thermal coal demand comparison (Mt)
  • Supply: the IEA 450 Scenario sees Indonesian exports fall below 200 Mtpa by 2035
    • Thermal coal supply summary in each scenario (Mt)
    • Australia export supply comparison (Mt)
    • Indonesia export supply comparison (Mt)
  • Prices: US$50/t FOB Newcastle could be the new norm
    • FOB Newcastle price comparison, US$/t (real 2016)
  • Conclusion
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