Insight
Thermal coal in a carbon-conscious world: the IEA 450 Scenario
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The call for a low-carbon economy has grown louder since the COP21 accord in Paris in December 2015. The world is becoming increasingly conscious of the potential harm caused by carbon emissions but has yet to agree on a clear path towards reducing those emissions. In this insight, we examine the impact of the adoption of the IEA's New Policies Scenario (NPS) and its 450 Scenario on our latest forecast of global thermal coal supply, demand and prices.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Scenario definition
- IEA New Policies Scenario (NPS)
- IEA 450 Scenario
- Wood Mackenzie base case
-
What assumptions differentiate the IEA scenarios from our base case?
- Macroeconomic growth
-
Demand: the IEA 450 Scenario sees thermal trade fall to 527 Mt in 2035
- Summary
- Regional explanation
- Implications for the seaborne trade: coal quality is all important
-
Supply: the IEA 450 Scenario sees Indonesian exports fall below 200 Mtpa by 2035
- Summary
- Regional explanation
- Prices: US$50/t FOB Newcastle could be the new norm
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key assumptions and drivers in scenarios
- FOB Newcastle price comparison, US$/t (real 2016)
- Global CO2 emissions (Mt)
- Thermal coal demand summary in each scenario (Mt)
- Global thermal coal demand comparison (Mt)
- Seaborne thermal coal demand comparison (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply summary in each scenario (Mt)
- Australia export supply comparison (Mt)
- Indonesia export supply comparison (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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