Commodity Market Report
Thermal coal markets short-term outlook September 2021
Report summary
It’s been another record-breaking month for coal prices supported by hot summer demand in the northern hemisphere. The resurgence in coronavirus cases seems to have only added supply concerns without much demand disruption. China’s benchmark coal prices hovered at above RMB1,000/t with the domestic production ramp-up delayed since July. Seaborne coal supply responses have improved marginally. How long will current prices stay? European coal-to-gas switching economics and low inventory have justified the high gas prices, but the commissioning of Russia's new gas pipeline later this year may change the picture. Will we see a knock-on impact on coal prices like 3 years ago?
Table of contents
- High/low scenarios
- China – demand for seaborne imports will remain high for remainder of year
- India – strong coal generation continues to drive demand
- Europe - dwindling wind generation and high gas prices create an opportunity for coal
- Australia – record export run rate fails to dent surging prices
- Indonesia – output edging up
- Russia – improved rail traffic to boost exports in Q3
- Colombia - Government approves Glencore's relinquishmentof Prodeco
Tables and charts
This report includes 8 images and tables including:
- Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
- India coal-fired generation
- South Korea generation vs fossil fuel share %
- South Korea coal-to-gas switching
- Japan coal-to-gas switching
- Australia thermal coal exports
- Australia thermal coal exports annualised
- Indonesia production and exports (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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