China in transition: carbon policy and the impact on energy markets

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Report summary

Six years on from Copenhagen, global leaders are meeting in Paris this week to determine the next phase of global climate negotiations. China has been prominent among the major global economies in spelling out its own commitments to future carbon emissions. But what will be China's ultimate position amid weak economic growth, a slowdown in major economic reforms, and historic lows in commodity prices? Our view remains that despite near-term challenges, China is on a long-term path for lower carbon emissions growth, a direct reflection of new priorities under President Xi Jinping.

What's included

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    China in transition: carbon policy and the impact on energy markets

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Table of contents

    • China's carbon policies: the basics
    • Peak carbon: emissions slow down, no peak in sight yet
    • Lower emissions intensity: within reach on macroeconomic trends
    • National carbon trading: not likely to impact fuel choices
    • Why now? Domestic drivers clear, but geopolitics in the forefront
    • Conclusions

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:


  • Emissions by fuel (2005-2035)
  • Emissions by sector (2005-2035)
  • Carbon intensity (2005 - 2030)

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