Croatia energy markets long-term outlook 2017: Road to liberalisation
The Great recession hit Croatian energy demand hard and is now in a process of a slow recovery. Oil has the largest share of Total Primary Energy Demand (TPED) driven by the transport sector but oil total final consumption (TFC) will fall from 41% in 2015 to 34% by 2035 as electricity and gas gain share. Despite a declining population and rising energy efficiency levels, we expect that per capita wealth growth, investment from EU-accession and increased ownership of domestic appliances will drive energy demand growth. We expect TPED to increase by an average of 1% from 2015 to 2035. The unbundling process in the Croatian electricity sector is still not completed and remains heavily dominated by the Hrvatska Elektroprivreda (HEP) Group. Gas price liberalisation was postponed by the Croatian government until 2017, however, the government will carry on influencing the gas price to try to protect Croatian consumers from a large price hike.