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Damaged infrastructure in Ukraine: implications across commodities for winter 2014/2015

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Report summary

The Ukraine crisis took a turn for the worse during the summer months. From July into August, an increase in hostilities in Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk regions) led to major damage to critical pieces of energy and mining infrastructure. This has ramifications for Ukraine’s energy complex in the all-important months leading up to winter. Meanwhile, the violence continues.In this insight we review the impact of the conflict on Ukraine’s coal, steel, iron ore and gas industries.

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  • Document

    Damaged infrastructure in Ukraine: implications across commodities for winter 2014/2015

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Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
    • Significant reduction in metallurgical and thermal production outlook
    • Steel production down, risk of increased iron ore exports weakening global price
    • Russian imports halted, but storage and alternative import capacity is growing
    • Damaged infrastructure and lower thermal coal deliveries
    • 6 Mt shortage of coal this winter and how to compensate
  • Risks to the outlook: coal and gas downside, and cold weather provide an extreme case
    • Nominal iron and steel making capacity in 2014 (Mtpa)

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

Images

  • Ukraine Map – damaged infrastructure
  • Coal production profile (Mt) – actual and forecast
  • Key steel, iron and metallurgical coal fundamentals (Mtpa)
  • Electricity output (TWh) - actual and forecast
  • Power generation output by fuel (%, 2013)
  • Reference Case: Coal Generation Gap versus Alternative Supply (TWh)

Tables

  • Damaged infrastructure in Ukraine: implications across commodities for winter 2014/2015: Table 1
  • Reduction in coke making capacity (Mtpa)

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