Commodity market report
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32 Pages

Europe energy markets and price long-term outlook H1 2016

Europe energy markets and price long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

Fossil fuel demand in Europe is declining at an average rate of -0.3% per year from 2015 to 2035. Climate-energy policy continues to shape the development of European energy markets and the role of renewable technologies is expanding, particularly in the power sector. However, we maintain a view that EU policy objectives to 2030 remain ambitious and beyond reach. Our latest view of oil, gas, coal and carbon prices are included in this report, along with an update on EU energy policy.

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • Europe energy markets and price long-term outlook H1 2016 PDF - 584.55 KB 32 Pages, 3 Tables, 25 Figures
  • Europe Energy H1 2016.xls XLS - 3.72 MB
  • Europe Gas Demand H1 2016.xls XLS - 1.40 MB


Due to their sensitivity to political events and the global economy, energy demand and trade remain extremely volatile. The rapidly changing cost environment for hydrocarbon production and renewable energy, combined with energy policy changes, means the fuel mix in energy markets can be unpredictable at best. Further complicating the outlook is the transition and pace of the energy-intensive developing world from industrial to services-based economic growth, supporting the growing need for power generation.

This Energy Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a multi-fuel supply and demand forecast supported by a breakdown of the key facts.

Companies involved in all sectors of the energy industry can use this long term outlook report to assess inter-fuel dynamics and market drivers for strategic planning and investment opportunities. Use it to understand supply and demand fundamentals across hydrocarbon and renewables.

Analysing 92 markets and providing comprehensive coverage of global energy supply and demand, Wood Mackenzie is ideally placed to offer extensive expertise and robust knowledge of the energy markets sector. We write detailed supply and demand forecasts across all fuels and sectors based on our objective, proprietary data.

Whether you want an independent outlook on the market or to screen for opportunities in new markets, we help you understand global energy dynamics so you can shape your corporate strategy with confidence.

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Dimension 1: Energy security, solidarity and trust
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Security of supply
      • State aid and security of electricity supply
    • Dimension 2: A fully integrated internal energy market
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Internal market
      • Competition
      • Anti-trust enforcement
    • Dimension 3. Decarbonising the economy
      • Main projects and initiatives:
        • Carbon emissions forecast versus targets - EU-28
      • The Paris Agreement, an upside risk for the EU climate change targets, but not soon
    • Dimension 4. Energy efficiency
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Energy efficiency targets
    • Dimension 5. Research, innovation and competitiveness
      • Main projects and initiatives
    • EU emissions trading
      • Carbon market background
      • Energy policy development and EU ETS
        • 2030 targets confirmed
        • A on-going role of EU emissions trading
      • Market scope, balance and the influence of the MSR
  • Demand
    • Industrial & Non Energy Use
  • Prices
    • Oil prices
    • Gas prices

In this report there are 28 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
    • Europe GDP forecast
  • Policy and regulation
    • EU Energy Union
    • EU Energy Security Package
    • EU Third Energy Package
    • EU climate-energy targets
    • Policy and regulation: Image 2
    • European (EU) renewable electricity targets and growth
    • Historical carbon (EUA) prices in ETS trading phases
    • ETS allowance supply - post-market reserve
    • Cumulative allowance balance - before and after the market reserve
  • Demand
    • Energy demand by sector
    • Energy demand by supply
    • Energy intensity by sub region
    • Energy demand by sub region
    • Industrial fuel mix
    • Industrial demand by sub region
    • Transport fuel mix
    • Transport demand by sub region
    • RCA fuel mix
    • RCA energy demand by sub region
  • Prices
    • Oil price forecast
    • Gas price forecast
    • Economics of gas vs coal (coal price @US$50/t)
    • Coal to Gas switching volumes at different gas prices*
    • Economics of US LNG vs Russian export to Europe
    • NBP, Henry Hub and the economics of US LNG to Europe
    • US LNG utilisation vs capacity (under construction)
    • Russian exports to Europe
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Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.