Commodity Market Report

Europe energy markets and price long-term outlook H1 2016

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06 July 2016

Europe energy markets and price long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

Fossil fuel demand in Europe is declining at an average rate of -0.3% per year from 2015 to 2035. Climate-energy policy continues to shape the development of European energy markets and the role of renewable technologies is expanding, particularly in the power sector. However, we maintain a view that EU policy objectives to 2030 remain ambitious and beyond reach. Our latest view of oil, gas, coal and carbon prices are included in this report, along with an update on EU energy policy.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
    • Dimension 1: Energy security, solidarity and trust
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Security of supply
      • State aid and security of electricity supply
    • Dimension 2: A fully integrated internal energy market
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Internal market
      • Competition
      • Anti-trust enforcement
    • Dimension 3. Decarbonising the economy
      • Main projects and initiatives:
        • Carbon emissions forecast versus targets - EU-28
      • The Paris Agreement, an upside risk for the EU climate change targets, but not soon
    • Dimension 4. Energy efficiency
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Energy efficiency targets
    • Dimension 5. Research, innovation and competitiveness
      • Main projects and initiatives
    • EU emissions trading
      • Carbon market background
      • Energy policy development and EU ETS
        • 2030 targets confirmed
        • A on-going role of EU emissions trading
      • Market scope, balance and the influence of the MSR
    • Industrial & Non Energy Use
    • Oil prices
    • Gas prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 28 images and tables including:

  • Europe GDP forecast
  • EU Energy Union
  • Energy demand by sector
  • Energy demand by supply
  • Energy intensity by sub region
  • Energy demand by sub region
  • Industrial fuel mix
  • Industrial demand by sub region
  • Transport fuel mix
  • Transport demand by sub region
  • RCA fuel mix
  • RCA energy demand by sub region
  • Oil price forecast
  • Gas price forecast
  • Economics of gas vs coal (coal price @US$50/t)
  • Coal to Gas switching volumes at different gas prices*
  • Economics of US LNG vs Russian export to Europe
  • NBP, Henry Hub and the economics of US LNG to Europe
  • US LNG utilisation vs capacity (under construction)
  • Russian exports to Europe
  • EU Energy Security Package
  • EU Third Energy Package
  • EU climate-energy targets
  • European (EU) renewable electricity targets and growth
  • Historical carbon (EUA) prices in ETS trading phases
  • ETS allowance supply - post-market reserve
  • Cumulative allowance balance - before and after the market reserve
  • Policy and regulation: Image 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe energy markets and price long-term outlook H1 2016

    PDF 584.55 KB

  • Document

    Europe energy markets and price long-term outlook H1 2016

    ZIP 1.26 MB

  • Document

    Europe Energy H1 2016.xls

    XLS 3.72 MB

  • Document

    Europe Gas Demand H1 2016.xls

    XLS 1.40 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 84.60 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 66.33 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 262.89 KB

  • Document


    PDF 151.25 KB

  • Document


    PDF 175.55 KB

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