Commodity market report
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30 Pages

Europe energy markets and price long-term outlook H2 2016

Europe energy markets and price long-term outlook H2 2016

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie forecast EU-28 energy demand to decline at an average rate of 0.6% a year between 2016 and 2035. This is broadly in line with the energy-related targets of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the IEA's New Policies scenario (recently published in the world energy outlook 2016). This report provides an update on European energy demand and EU energy policy.  It includes our latest long-term regional view of oil, gas, coal and carbon prices, alongside gas and base-load power prices for a number of key European markets.

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • Europe energy markets and price long-term outlook H2 2016 PDF - 605.34 KB 30 Pages, 3 Tables, 26 Figures
  • Europe energy markets and prices long-term outlook H2 2016.xls XLS - 1.21 MB
  • Europe gas demand H2 2016.xls XLS - 1.35 MB


Due to their sensitivity to political events and the global economy, energy demand and trade remain extremely volatile. The rapidly changing cost environment for hydrocarbon production and renewable energy, combined with energy policy changes, means the fuel mix in energy markets can be unpredictable at best. Further complicating the outlook is the transition and pace of the energy-intensive developing world from industrial to services-based economic growth, supporting the growing need for power generation.

This Energy Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a multi-fuel supply and demand forecast supported by a breakdown of the key facts.

Companies involved in all sectors of the energy industry can use this long term outlook report to assess inter-fuel dynamics and market drivers for strategic planning and investment opportunities. Use it to understand supply and demand fundamentals across hydrocarbon and renewables.

Analysing 92 markets and providing comprehensive coverage of global energy supply and demand, Wood Mackenzie is ideally placed to offer extensive expertise and robust knowledge of the energy markets sector. We write detailed supply and demand forecasts across all fuels and sectors based on our objective, proprietary data.

Whether you want an independent outlook on the market or to screen for opportunities in new markets, we help you understand global energy dynamics so you can shape your corporate strategy with confidence.

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
    • Q3 2016 GDP growth (2010-2035)
  • Policy and regulation
    • Main projects and initiatives:
    • Security of supply
    • State aid and security of electricity supply
    • Main projects and initiatives:
    • Internal market
    • Competition
    • Anti-trust enforcement
    • Main projects and initiatives:
    • The Paris Agreement, an upside risk for the EU climate change targets
    • Clean Energy for all Europeans
    • Renewables targets and decarbonisation in the power sector
    • Main projects and initiatives:
    • Energy efficiency targets
    • Main projects and initiatives
    • Carbon market background
    • Energy policy development and EU ETS
      • 2030 targets confirmed
      • A on-going role of EU emissions trading
    • Market scope, balance and the influence of the MSR
  • Demand
  • Prices
    • Oil prices
    • Gas prices
      • Market fundamentals in Europe are tightening…
      • …but pipeline imports in Europe are resilient
      • European spot prices will be set by US Gulf Coast LNG FOB in the medium term
    • Power prices
      • Difficult markets for conventional generators
      • But, despite weak prices, clear market differentials endure
      • Emissions (EUA) price forecast
        • Carbon (EUA) price forecast
        • Carbon price, fuel switching cost and the cost of carbon in power

In this report there are 29 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Image 1
  • Policy and regulation
    • Energy Union Package
    • EU Energy Security Package
    • EU Third Energy Package
    • EU climate-energy targets
    • Policy and regulation: Image 2
    • European (EU) renewable electricity targets and growth
    • Historical carbon (EUA) prices
    • ETS allowance supply - post-market reserve
    • Market reserve inflow, outflow and balance
  • Demand
    • All Fuels Total Primary Energy Demand (TPED)
    • Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
    • Coal - Total Primary Energy Demand
    • Oil - Total Primary Energy Demand
    • Gas - Total Primary Energy Demand
    • Non Fossil Fuels - Total Primary Energy Demand
  • Prices
    • Oil price forecast
    • Gas price forecast
    • NBP - TTF differentials
    • PEGN - TTF differentials
    • Gaspool - TTF differentials
    • PSV - TTF differentials
    • Spain LNG and Japan LNG - NBP differentials
    • Prices: Image 8
    • European power prices – annual base load
    • Clean spark spreads
    • Clean dark spreads (low efficiency)
    • Prices: Image 12
    • Prices: Image 13
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