Commodity market report
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28 Pages

Europe energy markets long-term outlook H2 2015


Europe energy markets long-term outlook H2 2015

Report summary

Fossil fuel demand in Europe is declining at an average rate of -0.3% per year from 2015 to 2035. Climate-energy policy continues to shape the development of European energy markets and the role of renewable technologies is expanding, particularly in the power sector. However, we maintain a view that EU policy objectives to 2030 remain ambitious and beyond reach. Our latest view of oil, gas, coal and carbon prices are included in this report, along with an update on EU energy policy.

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • Europe energy markets long-term outlook H2 2015 PDF - 589.59 KB 28 Pages, 2 Tables, 25 Figures
  • Europe Energy H2 2015.xls XLS - 3.58 MB
  • Europe Gas Demand H2 2015.xls XLS - 3.53 MB

Description

Due to their sensitivity to political events and the global economy, energy demand and trade remain extremely volatile. The rapidly changing cost environment for hydrocarbon production and renewable energy, combined with energy policy changes, means the fuel mix in energy markets can be unpredictable at best. Further complicating the outlook is the transition and pace of the energy-intensive developing world from industrial to services-based economic growth, supporting the growing need for power generation.

This Energy Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a multi-fuel supply and demand forecast supported by a breakdown of the key facts.

Companies involved in all sectors of the energy industry can use this long term outlook report to assess inter-fuel dynamics and market drivers for strategic planning and investment opportunities. Use it to understand supply and demand fundamentals across hydrocarbon and renewables.

Analysing 92 markets and providing comprehensive coverage of global energy supply and demand, Wood Mackenzie is ideally placed to offer extensive expertise and robust knowledge of the energy markets sector. We write detailed supply and demand forecasts across all fuels and sectors based on our objective, proprietary data.

Whether you want an independent outlook on the market or to screen for opportunities in new markets, we help you understand global energy dynamics so you can shape your corporate strategy with confidence.

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Dimension 1: Energy security, solidarity and trust
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Security of supply
      • State aid and security of electricity supply
    • Dimension 2: A fully integrated internal energy market
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Internal market
      • Competition
      • Anti-trust enforcement
    • Dimension 3. Decarbonising the economy
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • The Paris Agreement, an upside risk for the EU climate change targets, but not soon
    • Dimension 4. Energy efficiency
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Energy efficiency targets
    • Dimension 5. Research, innovation and competitiveness
      • Main projects and initiatives
    • EU emissions trading
      • Carbon market background
      • Energy policy development and EU ETS
        • 2030 targets confirmed
        • A on-going role of EU emissions trading
      • Market scope, balance and the influence of the MSR
  • Demand
    • Industrial & Non Energy Use
  • Prices
    • Oil prices
    • Gas prices
      • Short-term outlook - falling prices and market weakness
      • Long-term outlook - Asian demand growth continues to slow while negative sentiment towards coal grows
      • Changes from the previous coal price outlook
    • ETS Carbon prices
      • Emissions (EUA) price forecast

In this report there are 27 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
    • Europe GDP forecast
  • Policy and regulation
    • EU Energy Union
    • EU Third Energy Package
    • EU climate-energy targets
    • European (EU) renewable electricity targets and growth
    • Historical carbon (EUA) prices in ETS trading phases
    • ETS allowance supply - post-market reserve
    • Cumulative allowance balance - before and after the market reserve
  • Demand
    • Energy demand by sector
    • Energy demand by supply
    • Energy intensity by sub region
    • Energy demand by sub region
    • Industrial fuel mix
    • Industrial demand by sub region
    • Transport fuel mix
    • Transport demand by sub region
    • RCA fuel mix
    • RCA energy demand by sub region
  • Prices
    • Oil price forecast
    • Gas price forecast
    • Economics* of gas vs coal** in the power sector
    • Coal to Gas switching volumes at different gas prices*
    • Russian exports to Europe flows vs ACQ and ToP
    • Russian contract prices, Gazprom price and NBP
    • Coal price forecast – delivered (CFR) ARA prices (6,000 kcal/kg NAR)
    • Carbon (EUA) price forecast
    • Carbon price and cost of fuel switching in the power sector
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