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Europe energy markets long-term outlook H2 2015

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23 December 2015

Europe energy markets long-term outlook H2 2015

Report summary

Fossil fuel demand in Europe is declining at an average rate of -0.3% per year from 2015 to 2035. Climate-energy policy continues to shape the development of European energy markets and the role of renewable technologies is expanding, particularly in the power sector. However, we maintain a view that EU policy objectives to 2030 remain ambitious and beyond reach. Our latest view of oil, gas, coal and carbon prices are included in this report, along with an update on EU energy policy.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
    • Dimension 1: Energy security, solidarity and trust
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Security of supply
      • State aid and security of electricity supply
    • Dimension 2: A fully integrated internal energy market
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Internal market
      • Competition
      • Anti-trust enforcement
    • Dimension 3. Decarbonising the economy
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • The Paris Agreement, an upside risk for the EU climate change targets, but not soon
    • Dimension 4. Energy efficiency
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Energy efficiency targets
    • Dimension 5. Research, innovation and competitiveness
      • Main projects and initiatives
    • EU emissions trading
      • Carbon market background
      • Energy policy development and EU ETS
        • 2030 targets confirmed
        • A on-going role of EU emissions trading
      • Market scope, balance and the influence of the MSR
    • Industrial & Non Energy Use
    • Oil prices
    • Gas prices
      • Short-term outlook - falling prices and market weakness
      • Long-term outlook - Asian demand growth continues to slow while negative sentiment towards coal grows
      • Changes from the previous coal price outlook
    • ETS Carbon prices
      • Emissions (EUA) price forecast

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

  • Europe GDP forecast
  • EU Energy Union
  • Energy demand by sector
  • Energy demand by supply
  • Energy intensity by sub region
  • Energy demand by sub region
  • Industrial fuel mix
  • Industrial demand by sub region
  • Transport fuel mix
  • Transport demand by sub region
  • RCA fuel mix
  • RCA energy demand by sub region
  • Oil price forecast
  • Gas price forecast
  • Economics* of gas vs coal** in the power sector
  • Coal to Gas switching volumes at different gas prices*
  • Russian exports to Europe flows vs ACQ and ToP
  • Russian contract prices, Gazprom price and NBP
  • EU Third Energy Package
  • EU climate-energy targets
  • European (EU) renewable electricity targets and growth
  • Historical carbon (EUA) prices in ETS trading phases
  • ETS allowance supply - post-market reserve
  • Cumulative allowance balance - before and after the market reserve
  • Coal price forecast – delivered (CFR) ARA prices (6,000 kcal/kg NAR)
  • Carbon (EUA) price forecast
  • Carbon price and cost of fuel switching in the power sector

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe Energy H2 2015.xls

    XLS 3.58 MB

  • Document

    Europe Gas Demand H2 2015.xls

    XLS 3.53 MB

  • Document

    Europe energy markets long-term outlook H2 2015

    PDF 589.59 KB

  • Document

    Europe energy markets long-term outlook H2 2015

    ZIP 1.34 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 79.30 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 66.31 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 236.69 KB

  • Document


    PDF 148.41 KB

  • Document


    PDF 213.94 KB