Commodity Market Report

Europe energy prices long-term outlook H2 2017

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02 February 2018

Europe energy prices long-term outlook H2 2017

Report summary

Despite recent buoyancy in European energy prices, fundamentals still point towards a weakening in the near-term. However, our latest gas market outlook features a shorter and shallower oversupply than previously anticipated. This report provides H2 2017 European energy prices to 2035, including analysis of European gas price differentials. The related downloads provide data on energy prices and our country gas demand by sector to 2035.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Oil prices
    • Gas prices
      • Gas price forecast - Europe
      • A shorter and shallower oversupply
      • as gas demand in Europe strengthens
      • and some producers fall short
      • Beyond the oversupply, European prices will need to attract more LNG and Russian gas
      • Europe Gas Price Hubs
    • Coal prices
    • Power prices
      • Difficult markets for conventional generators
      • Easing constraints give way to lower prices in coming years
      • Rising input costs support higher prices in the 2020s
    • ETS Carbon prices
      • Recent market trends
      • Energy policy development and the ETS
        • 2030 targets confirmed
        • The long-term role of EU emissions trading
      • Emissions (EUA) prices
    • Q4 2017 GDP growth (2010-2035)

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • Oil price forecast
  • Coal price forecast – delivered (CFR) ARA prices (6,000 kcal/kg NAR)
  • Economic outlook: Image 1
  • Prices: Image 2
  • Prices: Image 3
  • Prices: Image 4
  • NBP - TTF differentials
  • PEG Nord - TTF differentials
  • GASPOOL - TTF differentials
  • PSV - TTF differentials
  • Spain LNG and Japan LNG - NBP differentials
  • Clean spark spreads
  • Clean dark spreads (low efficiency)
  • Carbon (EUA) price and fuel switching cost in power

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe energy prices H2 2017.xlsx

    XLSX 956.47 KB

  • Document

    Europe gas demand H2 2017.xls

    XLS 1.37 MB

  • Document

    Europe energy prices long-term outlook H2 2017

    PDF 3.77 MB

  • Document

    Europe energy prices long-term outlook H2 2017

    ZIP 4.52 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 79.10 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 3.60 MB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 74.13 KB