Commodity Market Report

Poland energy markets long-term outlook 2017: the rise of liberalisation and decline of coal

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12 July 2017

Poland energy markets long-term outlook 2017: the rise of liberalisation and decline of coal

Report summary

Poland's economic growth has remained steady in recent times, averaging 4% over the last ten years despite the global recession in 2008. Poland will remain on strong growth trajectory, with its economy growing by an average of 2% until the end of the forecast. Poland is heavily dependent on coal, with over 80% of its power output coming from hard coal and lignite-fired sources. We expect Poland's dependence on coal to decline, due to the implementation of the European Union's decarbonisation policies, but relatively low carbon prices will incentivise strong coal burn until the mid-2020s. Coal will face increasing competition from competing fuels such as renewables and natural gas, but will remain the dominant fuel in the power mix. Progress in the liberalisation of Poland's gas and electricity grids has been slow, and while the conservative, nationalist Law and Justice party remain in power, Poland's energy sector will likely remain firmly under state control.

Table of contents

    • Links to related reports
  • Economic outlook
  • Political developments
    • EU emissions trading scheme
    • Authorities
    • Gas sector regulation & organisation
    • Electricity sector regulation & organisation
    • Economic Drivers and Energy Demand
    • Total primary energy demand
    • Energy intensity
    • Industrial & non-energy use
      • Key Sub-sectors
      • Key fuels
    • Transport
      • Key fuels
    • Residential, Commercial and Agricultural
      • Key fuels
    • Gas
      • The gas sector in Poland is covered in our report, Poland gas H2 2017.
    • Power
      • Oil
      • Coal
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 16 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Economic indicators (2005-2035)
  • Policy and regulation: Table 1
  • Total primary energy demand (2005-2035)
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Energy Demand for Industry and Non-energy Use (2005-2035)
  • Transport sector energy demand (2005-2035)
  • Energy Demand in the RCA Sector (2005-2035)
  • RCA Energy Demand by Sub-Sector (2014)
  • Supply-demand balance (2005-2035)
  • Power output by fuel (2005-2035)
  • Industrial energy mix (2005-2035)
  • Residential, Commercial, and Agricultural Fuel Mix (2005-2035)
  • Supply-demand balance (2005-2035)
  • Supply-demand balance (2005-2035)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Poland energy markets long-term outlook.xls

    XLS 802.00 KB

  • Document

    Poland energy markets long-term outlook 2017

    PDF 439.80 KB

  • Document

    Poland energy markets long-term outlook 2017

    ZIP 703.00 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 101.22 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 74.82 KB

  • Document

    Political developments

    PDF 55.58 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 98.59 KB

  • Document

    Market structure

    PDF 92.23 KB

  • Document


    PDF 200.29 KB

  • Document


    PDF 107.12 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 64.22 KB