Poland energy markets long-term outlook 2017: the rise of liberalisation and decline of coal
Poland's economic growth has remained steady in recent times, averaging 4% over the last ten years despite the global recession in 2008. Poland will remain on strong growth trajectory, with its economy growing by an average of 2% until the end of the forecast. Poland is heavily dependent on coal, with over 80% of its power output coming from hard coal and lignite-fired sources. We expect Poland's dependence on coal to decline, due to the implementation of the European Union's decarbonisation policies, but relatively low carbon prices will incentivise strong coal burn until the mid-2020s. Coal will face increasing competition from competing fuels such as renewables and natural gas, but will remain the dominant fuel in the power mix. Progress in the liberalisation of Poland's gas and electricity grids has been slow, and while the conservative, nationalist Law and Justice party remain in power, Poland's energy sector will likely remain firmly under state control.