Like its hydrocarbon-exporting peers, Qatar is feeling the pinch of low oil and gas prices. The Qatari economy is highly dependent on hydrocarbon revenues, mainly from gas but also from oil exports. Future GDP growth will not be supported by major new energy projects due to a self-imposed moratorium on the further development of the North Field gas reserves. The on-going push to expand the share of Qatar's non-hydrocarbon economy drives the increase of industrial gas demand from energy-intensive petrochemical, metals and construction sectors as well as from power generation. We expect gas to remain the dominant fuel to meet Qatar’s growing energy demand over the forecast period. The country’s oil exports are projected to fall in line with its oil production, which has entered a stage of steady decline, while gas exports are expected to stay flat.
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Due to their sensitivity to political events and the global economy, energy demand and trade remain extremely volatile. The rapidly changing cost environment for hydrocarbon production and renewable energy, combined with energy policy changes, means the fuel mix in energy markets can be unpredictable at best. Further complicating the outlook is the transition and pace of the energy-intensive developing world from industrial to services-based economic growth, supporting the growing need for power generation.
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Qatar energy markets long-term outlook 2016
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