Commodity market report
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13 Pages

South Africa power markets long-term outlook 2016


South Africa power markets long-term outlook 2016

Report summary

South Africa has struggled to meet electricity demand in recent years with load shedding sometimes necessary to balance the system.  The problem is due to electricity demand growth and under-investment in generation capacity - with low electricity prices a key factor in both trends. Coal dominates South Africa's generation mix accounting for over 90% of power output. This share will fall over the forecast but absolute levels of coal power output will continue to rise until 2026. Additional generation capacity in the short to medium term will come from coal (Medupi and Kusile), new gas-fired generation and strong growth in renewables. Gas-fired generation is dependent on South Africa emerging as a new LNG import market.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • South Africa power markets long-term outlook 2016 PDF - 470.67 KB 13 Pages, 4 Tables, 7 Figures
  • South Africa 2016.xls XLS - 845.50 KB

Description

Due to their sensitivity to political events and the global economy, energy demand and trade remain extremely volatile. The rapidly changing cost environment for hydrocarbon production and renewable energy, combined with energy policy changes, means the fuel mix in energy markets can be unpredictable at best. Further complicating the outlook is the transition and pace of the energy-intensive developing world from industrial to services-based economic growth, supporting the growing need for power generation.

This Energy Markets Long Term Outlook report provides a multi-fuel supply and demand forecast supported by a breakdown of the key facts.

Companies involved in all sectors of the energy industry can use this long term outlook report to assess inter-fuel dynamics and market drivers for strategic planning and investment opportunities. Use it to understand supply and demand fundamentals across hydrocarbon and renewables.

Analysing 92 markets and providing comprehensive coverage of global energy supply and demand, Wood Mackenzie is ideally placed to offer extensive expertise and robust knowledge of the energy markets sector. We write detailed supply and demand forecasts across all fuels and sectors based on our objective, proprietary data.

Whether you want an independent outlook on the market or to screen for opportunities in new markets, we help you understand global energy dynamics so you can shape your corporate strategy with confidence.

  • Executive summary
    • Links to other South Africa Energy Market reports
  • Market structure
    • Organisation
    • Competitive landscape
  • Policy and regulation
    • Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)
  • Prices
  • Infrastructure
  • Demand
  • Supply
    • Production
      • Electricity output by fuel (2005-2035)
      • Coal
      • Gas
      • Renewables
      • Nuclear
      • Hydro
  • Trade

In this report there are 11 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Market structure
    • Structure of the South African electricity market
  • Policy and regulation
  • Prices
  • Infrastructure
    • Electricity infrastructure map
  • Demand
    • Electricity demand (2005-2035)
    • Electricity demand by sector (2015)
    • Electricity demand (2005-2035)
  • Supply
    • Electricity output by fuel (2015)
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Comparison to IRP forecasts - capacity and percentage of fuel mix in 2030
    • Fuel inputs to electricity (2005 - 2035)
  • Trade
    • Electricity trade (2005-2035)
    • Electricity trade (2005-2035)
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