Commodity Market Report

South Africa power markets long-term outlook 2016

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Report summary

South Africa has struggled to meet electricity demand in recent years with load shedding sometimes necessary to balance the system.  The problem is due to electricity demand growth and under-investment in generation capacity - with low electricity prices a key factor in both trends. Coal dominates South Africa's generation mix accounting for over 90% of power output. This share will fall over the forecast but absolute levels of coal power output will continue to rise until 2026. Additional generation capacity in the short to medium term will come from coal (Medupi and Kusile), new gas-fired generation and strong growth in renewables. Gas-fired generation is dependent on South Africa emerging as a new LNG import market.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    South Africa 2016.xls

    XLS 845.50 KB

  • Document

    South Africa power markets long-term outlook 2016

    PDF 470.67 KB

  • Document

    South Africa power markets long-term outlook 2016

    ZIP 702.38 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 63.53 KB

  • Document

    Market structure

    PDF 90.24 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 78.96 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 56.88 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 101.68 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 159.31 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 168.88 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 98.57 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Electricity demand (2005-2035)
  • Electricity trade (2005-2035)
  • Comparison to IRP forecasts - capacity and percentage of fuel mix in 2030
  • Fuel inputs to electricity (2005 - 2035)

Images

  • Electricity infrastructure map
  • Electricity demand by sector (2015)
  • Electricity demand (2005-2035)
  • Electricity trade (2005-2035)
  • Structure of the South African electricity market
  • Electricity output by fuel (2015)
  • Supply: Image 2

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