In our base case, we expect that Ukraine will minimise its gas consumption in the power, industrial and RCA sectors over the forecast in order to improve energy security and decrease reliance on Russian imports. The latest round of Ukraine-Russia gas price and debt repayment discussion in November 2013 which resulted in President Victor Yanukovich choosing a Russian-backed bailout over a European trade partnership launched Ukraine's current political crisis
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Due to their sensitivity to political events and the global economy, energy demand and trade remain extremely volatile. The rapidly changing cost environment for hydrocarbon production and renewable energy, combined with energy policy changes, means the fuel mix in energy markets can be unpredictable at best. Further complicating the outlook is the transition and pace of the energy-intensive developing world from industrial to services-based economic growth, supporting the growing need for power generation.
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Ukraine does not export its own gas as this is used to supply the subsidised domestic gas demand (namely the residential sector). From 2000, it heavily relied on the imports of gas from Central Asia and Russia to meet demand in excess of its indigenous production. Most imported gas came from Turkmenistan under bilateral agreements. Any unused gas was re-exported to the Europe. This accounted for all the gas export volumes published by the IEA. Net trade averaged 55.4 bcm over 2000-05.
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Commodity market report | Mar 2014
Ukraine energy markets outlook 2014 - gas
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