Commodity market report

Global LNG shipping long-term outlook 2017

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Report summary

Demand for LNG shipping has turned a corner in 2017. New LNG supply and increased Atlantic to Pacific basin long haul flows have created more employment for ships. After five years of low or falling vessel demand growth 2017 should see a double digit percentage increase in demand. Unfortunately for ship owners but not ship charterers the supply of LNG ships is keeping pace as ships ordered in the 2011 to 2015 ordering boom are delivered to the fleet. Successful renegotiation of delivery dates for some of the ships ordered during the boom has reduced the amount of new capacity delivered to the fleet this year and last which has helped tighten the market in late 2017. However these ships will eventually be delivered and will mean that LNG ship supply will outpace ship demand in 2018. Thereafter demand growth should be stronger than supply growth if owners remain restrained in ordering new ships.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    lng shipping long term outlook 2017.xls

    XLS 695.00 KB

  • Document

    Global LNG shipping long-term outlook 2017

    PDF 639.82 KB

  • Document

    Global LNG shipping long-term outlook 2017

    ZIP 837.69 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 100.84 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 100.33 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 352.56 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 346.29 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 147.01 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 145.56 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 141.63 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 141.67 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

Images

  • Forecast LNG shipping supply v demand (number of 174,000 m³ equivalent vessels/bcm-miles)
  • Historic LNG exports
  • Historic LNG imports
  • Far East LNG imports by source (mmtpa)
  • Far East LNG imports (billion tonne-miles)
  • Modelled forecast LNG trade (bcm)
  • Modelled forecast LNG trade ('000 bcm-miles)
  • Estimated shipping requirement for projects under construction (number of 174,000 m³ equivalent vessels)
  • LNG vessels required to export 4.5 mmtpa to selected destinations by export region
  • LNG liquefaction capacity by status v LNG demand
  • Ship requirement by status v LNG demand
  • LNG fleet development by size range (current fleet and orderbook)
  • LNG shipyards committed output and delivery availability
  • LNG ships ordered - charter expiry schedule (17,500 m³+ ships)
  • Existing LNG fleet - charter expiry schedule (100,000 m³+ ships)
  • Existing LNG fleet - charter expiry schedule (17,500-100,000 m³ ships)
  • Historic and forecast LNG vessel scrapping
  • LNG fleet capacity v bcm-mile demand
  • Bcm-mile demand v theoretical maximum
  • Forecast LNG shipping supply (17,500m3 +)

Tables

  • LNG shipping requirement by project
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Scrapping potential of current LNG fleet

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