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Asia Pacific LNG and European Spot Prices - the 14/15 Winter Outlook

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24 September 2014

Asia Pacific LNG and European Spot Prices - the 14/15 Winter Outlook

Report summary

Following a bearish summer in Asia Pacific and Europe, our attention now shifts to winter.  Will increasing Pacific LNG supply be sufficient to support Asian winter demand? And just how much LNG will be available to Europe? We have analysed global LNG fundamentals to determine the likely winter outlook for LNG balances and prices in the Pacific. Similarly, we have looked at NW European fundamentals to determine the likely winter outlook for gas balances and prices.  

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
    • LNG supply winter 2014/15
      • Pacific LNG supply is up, driven by PNG LNG
      • Atlantic LNG supply slightly down, but Nigeria will determine outcome
    • LNG demand winter 2014/15
      • JKT LNG imports down, the result of last winter’s mild weather
      • China’s growing pains limit LNG uptick
      • SE Asia LNG imports continue to grow, India likely flat but upside
      • Brazil rainfall will determine Latin America import levels but North America expected up
      • Pacific Spot Price Outlook
      • LNG availability to Europe
      • North West Europe fundamentals
        • Demand recovery limited by new coal capacity additions
        • Storage inventories 2 bcm above average entering winter
        • Increase in UK production limited by delayed start-ups
        • Groningen production cap contributes to Dutch supply decrease
        • Norwegian supply in line with NPD forecast
        • Reverse flows to Ukraine remains large uncertainty for European pipeline exports
      • Europe Spot Price Outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Chart 1 - LNG Supply - YoY Change
  • Chart 2 - Net LNG Demand - YoY Change
  • Chart 3 - Pacific LNG - YoY Change
  • Chart 4 - Japan LNG Spot Price (ANEA)
  • Chart 5 - Net LNG Available to Europe - YoY Change
  • Chart 6 - European Net LNG Imports - YoY Change
  • Chart 7 - NW Europe Balance - YoY Change
  • Chart 8 - European Spot Price (NBP)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Asia Pacific LNG and European Spot Prices - the 14/15 Winter Outlook

    PDF 344.59 KB

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