Commodity market report
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30 Pages

Belgium gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014


Belgium gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014

Report summary

A mild winter has kept demand low and seen prices in Belgium fall to below US$7/mmbtu in June. Despite this, we have seen limited demand response in the power sector as coal has maintained its attractiveness over gas. Assuming normal weather conditions, we expect prices to recover from this winter. A tight LNG market, capped Dutch production an increase in continental exports to the UK will keep prices high over the next few years, before greater supply competition emerges post 2018.


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Belgium gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014 PDF - 721.05 KB 30 Pages, 6 Tables, 35 Figures
  • EGAPS Belgium Gas H1 2014.xls XLS - 941.00 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Recent Trends
    • Short/Mid term outlook summary (2014- 2017)
    • Long term outlook summary (2018- 2030)
  • Economic outlook
  • Market structure
  • Policy and regulation
  • Demand
    • Recent events and short term outlook
    • Forecast summary
    • Non-power gas demand
      • Residential
      • Commercial
      • Industrial
      • Other
      • Uncertainties
  • Infrastructure
    • Existing gas infrastructure
      • Existing LNG infrastructure
      • Existing pipeline infrastructure
      • Existing gas storage infrastructure
    • New infrastructure
      • New pipeline infrastructure
      • New LNG infrastructure
      • New storage infrastructure
  • Contracts
    • Piped gas contracts and flows
      • Contracted gas exports
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Gas flows into Belgium
    • Belgium transit gas flows
    • Belgium LNG Flows
  • Costs
    • Tariffs for transportation
    • Tariffs at domestic exit points 2013/2014
    • Seasonal Coefficients 2014
  • Prices
    • The Zeebrugge trading hub and price development
    • Zeebrugge hub price forecast
    • Trading at Zeebrugge
    • Consumer gas prices
  • Margins
    • Household sector
    • Industrial sector

In this report there are 41 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Annual gas prices
    • Gas flows into Belgium
  • Economic outlook
    • Q1 2014 Economic indicators (2005-2030)
    • GDP forecast - Belgium
  • Market structure
    • Belgian gas network
  • Policy and regulation
    • Key offices
  • Demand
    • Quarterly gas demand by sector (Q1 2011-Q4 2014)
    • Gas demand by sector 2005 to 2030
    • Contribution to growth H1 2014 - all sectors (2014-30)
    • Non power gas demand by sector (2014-2030)
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Existing import capacity
    • Infrastructure: Image 3
    • Existing export capacity
    • Existing infrastructure – gas storage (volume in mcm)
    • Forecast import capacity
    • Infrastructure: Image 7
    • Forecast export capacity
  • Contracts
    • Historical piped imports
    • Contracts: Image 2
    • Belgium contracted piped imports
    • Contracts: Image 4
    • Historical LNG imports
    • Contracts: Image 6
    • Belgium contracted LNG imports
    • Contracts: Image 8
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply demand gap
    • Gas flows into Belgium
    • Transit gas flows
    • LNG Flows into Belgium
  • Costs
    • Costs: Image 1
    • Tariffs at interconnection points 2013/2014
    • Costs: Table 2
    • Costs: Table 3
  • Prices
    • Annual gas prices (real 2014)
    • Development of gas trading at Zeebrugge
    • Historical consumer prices (2007-2013)
  • Margins
    • Household sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on oil indexed supply contracts
    • Household sector cost breakdown December 2013
    • Industrial sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on oil indexed supply contracts
    • Industrial sector gross margins (2007-2013) based on Zeebrugge wholesale prices
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