North American gas market fundamentals look stronger for 2017 than any year in the shale gas era: production is declining from both oil and gas plays, and pipeline bottlenecks mean that low-cost Northeast supply can grow only about 1.7 bcfd next year. Meanwhile, exports to Mexico, new industrial projects are coming online, coal-fired power plants are retiring, and US LNG export capacity is ramping up, leading to Henry Hub prices above US$3.50/mmbtu next year. In the medium term, new Northeast pipeline capacity—delayed and scaled back relative to developers’ plans but massive nonetheless—debottlenecks enormous amounts of low-cost supply. As well, Permian breakevens have continued to fall, so even a modest recovery in oil prices will again mean growth in associated gas production. North American demand growth remains strong, but these two low-cost supply sources push Henry Hub prices to less than US$3.25/mmbtu by year-end 2018 and an average of about US$2.85/mmbtu in the 2019-23 period.