North American gas market fundamentals look stronger for 2017 than any year in the shale gas era: production is declining from both oil and gas plays and pipeline bottlenecks mean that low cost Northeast supply can grow only about 1.7 bcfd next year. Meanwhile exports to Mexico new industrial projects are coming online coal fired power plants are retiring and US LNG export capacity is ramping up leading to Henry Hub prices above US$3.50/mmbtu next year. In the medium term new Northeast pipeline capacity delayed and scaled back relative to developers plans but massive nonetheless debottlenecks enormous amounts of low cost supply. As well Permian breakevens have continued to fall so even a modest recovery in oil prices will again mean growth in associated gas production. North American demand growth remains strong but these two low cost supply sources push Henry Hub prices to less than US$3.25/mmbtu by year end 2018 and an average of about US$2.85/mmbtu in the 2019 23 period.