Commodity market report
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22 Pages

Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014

Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014

Report summary

The blistering cold that kicked off 2014 drastically improved Canadian gas market fundamentals and lifted AECO prices to an average of $4.66/mmbtu for the first half of the year, the highest level since 2008. The strength in the gas market is fuelling exuberance in Canadian capital markets and driving billion-dollar asset transactions, LNG equity sell-downs, corporate M&A and spin-offs by Canadian majors, and increased activities among junior producers. 

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014 PDF - 424.41 KB 22 Pages, 1 Tables, 18 Figures
  • NAGS LTV Price Outlook Spring 2014.xls XLS - 781.00 KB
  • NAGS LTV Supply and Demand Spring 2014.xls XLS - 1.81 MB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Key findings
    • Regional production overview
      • Alberta
        • Deep Basin rich-gas
        • Montney shale (Alberta sub-plays)
        • Duvernay shale
        • Canadian development outlook
        • Canadian gas cost outlook
  • Demand
    • Key findings
    • Oil sands
    • Power
    • Core industrial
    • Residential and commercial
    • Natural gas vehicles and marine bunkering
  • Prices
    • North America: disparate market developments create divergent price paths
      • North American natural gas prices
    • Infrastructure developments
      • Western Canada: responding to production growth
      • Eastern Canada: balancing US expansions with TCPL settlement agreement
    • Regional basis
      • Western Canada: it gets worse before it gets better
      • Eastern Canada: just enough for WCSB flows
  • Trade
    • Eastern Canada and Northeast US: TransCanada mainline remains influential
    • Midwest US: WCSB holds its own against Marcellus and Bakken
    • West: gaining market share as pipelines flowing close to full
      • LNG exports from British Columbia
    • Export Policy
    • Proposed Projects

In this report there are 19 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Alberta production by key area
    • British Columbia production by key area
    • Canadian drilling forecast by target
    • Key shale drilling forecast
  • Demand
    • Canadian natural gas demand
    • Gas demand for oil sands development
    • Provincial gas demand for power
    • Load growth outlook (vs. 2013)
    • Natural gas demand for transportation
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Western Canada basis outlook
    • Eastern Canada basis outlook
  • Trade
    • Canadian exports by market
    • Pipeline flow forecast to and from the US
    • Flow outlook on TransCanada mainline
    • Flows on major US export pipelines
    • Trade: Image 5
    • Regulatory status of Canada sourced LNG export projects
    • Proposed Canadian LNG supply projects
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Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

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