Commodity Market Report

Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

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31 October 2016

Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

While the extremely warm winter from the beginning of 2016 seems like a distant memory, the Canadian gas markets are still feeling the lingering pain as Western Canada experienced one of the worst supply-demand dislocations this summer. With an expected pullback in WCSB production, rising demand from the oil sands sector and hopefully a normal winter season, market fundamentals for 2017 look strong enough to attract fresh capital, but three hurdles in particular could hold back market development and production growth for the basin beyond 2017.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

  • WCSB: Significant low-cost resource concentrated in liquids-rich plays
  • Better upstream economics support higher WCSB production than the previous forecast
  • Oil sands production still drives gas demand but power plays a less significant role
  • Oil sands demand could increase to 4 bcfd by 2030 from 2.6 bcfd in 2016
  • WCSB holds onto traditional markets in US for now and increases exports for Jordan Cove in the long term
  • Marcellus and Utica supplies delivered through short haul routes displace WCSB flows into Eastern Canada
  • Under current mainline rates, Wood Mackenzie assumes a sharp decline in contracting and flow on TCPL Mainline
  • Could a new toll offering on the TCPL mainline improve WCSB fundamentals?
  • AECO-Dawn spreads will narrow considerably from current levels
  • LNG demand outlook in established markets has deteriorated
  • Canada’s LNG projects could still offer post-2020 exports
  • Higher BC production forecast on the back of better well results and better export markets
  • AECO maintains a more stable discount to Henry Hub forecast in the long term

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Canada Long Term Outlook H1-2016 Update.pdf

    PDF 751.08 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Demand Breakout Spring 2016.xls

    XLS 1.71 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Infrastructure Spring 2016.xls

    XLS 189.00 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO LNG Breakout Spring 2016.xls

    XLS 819.50 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO NGV Breakout Spring 2016.xls

    XLS 665.00 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Price Outlook Spring 2016.xls

    XLS 935.50 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Supply and Demand Balances Spring 2016.xls

    XLS 949.50 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Supply Breakout Spring 2016.xls

    XLS 785.50 KB

  • Document

    Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

    PDF 1.37 MB

  • Document

    Canada gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

    ZIP 5.00 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 1.21 MB