Commodity market report
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27 Pages

Canada gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

Canada gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

Report summary

While AECO averages $4 in 2014, it could take more than a decade before AECO breaks $4 again, when WCSB finds a steady outlet to the global gas markets with LNG projects on the US West Coast and Canada. Before then, AECO needs to discount significantly to compete into the US Midwest and Pacific markets. 

What's included?

This report includes 9 file(s)

  • Canada gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014 PDF - 727.42 KB 27 Pages, 3 Tables, 20 Figures
  • NAGS LTV Demand Breakout Fall 2014.xls XLS - 1.88 MB
  • NAGS LTV Infrastructure Fall 2014.xls XLS - 158.50 KB
  • NAGS LTV Price Outlook Fall 2014.xls XLS - 773.50 KB
  • NAGS LTV Price Outlook Fall 2014 themes version.xls XLS - 629.50 KB
  • NAGS LTV Supply and Demand Fall 2014.xls XLS - 1.88 MB
  • NAGS LTV Supply and Demand Fall 2014 old Cost of Supply.xls XLS - 1.89 MB
  • NAGS New Industrial Capacity Q1 2015.xls XLS - 580.50 KB
  • NAGS Small-scale Liquefaction Capacity Q1 2015.xls XLS - 172.00 KB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Overview
      • Risks to our gas supply outlook in a lower oil price world
    • Regional production overview
      • Alberta
        • Deep Basin rich-gas
        • Montney shale (Alberta sub-plays)
        • Duvernay shale
  • Demand
    • Overview
    • Oil sands
      • Gas demand for oil sands development
    • Power
    • Core industrial
    • Residential and commercial
    • Natural gas vehicles and marine bunkering
      • Natural gas demand for transportation
  • Prices
    • North America: more low-cost supplies delay price appreciation
    • Infrastructure developments
      • Western Canada: LNG projects dictate pipeline development
      • Eastern Canada: accommodating more supplies from the US Northeast
    • Regional basis
      • Western Canada: surviving in a low-price environment
      • Pacific Northwest and Northern California: capitalizing on discounted AECO
      • Eastern Canada: disappearing premium as US Northeast supplies rush in
  • Trade
    • Overview
    • Piped exports to the US
      • Eastern Canada and US Northeast: detaching from WCSB
      • US Midwest: competing for market share
      • West: filling up the pipe
    • LNG exports
      • Pacific Basin demand softens
      • Canadian projects face headwinds
      • Small-scale west coast LNG projects
      • Major Western Canada LNG projects
      • Major Canadian LNG project overview
      • Eastern Canada LNG projects

In this report there are 23 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Canadian drilling forecast by target
    • Key shale drilling forecast
    • Impact of oil price (WTI) changes to gas breakevens in Canada
    • Alberta production by key area
    • British Columbia production by key area
  • Demand
    • Canadian natural gas demand
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Provincial gas demand for power
    • Load growth outlook (vs. 2014)
    • Demand: Image 5
  • Prices
    • North American natural gas prices
    • Western Canada basis outlook
    • Eastern Canada basis outlook
  • Trade
    • Canadian exports by market
    • Net piped exports
    • Flow outlook on TransCanada mainline
    • Flows on major US export pipelines
    • Midwest demand by supply area
    • WCSB dependent LNG export projects
    • Key export infrastructure
    • Small-scale LNG project overview
    • Trade: Table 2
    • Eastern Canada LNG project overview
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